The Chicago Bears are expected to take a big step forward in 2025, and oddsmakers expect that improvement to show right away.
According to early action tracked by FOX Sports, the Bears are 1.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 — and 78% of spread bets so far are backing Chicago.
Are the Chicago Bears going to start the 2025 season 1-0?
Interestingly, 62% of moneyline bets are on the Vikings. That makes sense given Minnesota is a short underdog. Bettors who think the Vikings will cover likely also believe they’ll win outright, since it’s unlikely they lose by exactly one point. The better payout in that case comes from taking them to win straight up on the moneyline.
On the other hand, Bears bettors see more value in laying the 1.5 points rather than paying the higher moneyline price. In most scenarios where Chicago wins, they’re expected to win by more than just a single point, so it’s more attractive to take the spread.
Given that Chicago is at home, the slight edge in the spread likely reflects the home-field advantage more than anything else. This game is about as close to a toss-up as you’ll find, with bets coming in on both sides and the spread remaining tight.
The most significant factor that could move this line between now and kickoff is the play of second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy. He remains the biggest unknown for Minnesota heading into the season, coming off a devastating season-ending injury. If McCarthy impresses in camp and preseason, the Vikings could see the line shift back in their favor. On the other hand, if he struggles or gets hurt, the Bears’ edge as favorites could grow.
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On the other hand, the Bears' expectations are already high, so it's hard to think of what could happen between now and the season that would change where the spread sits. They would have to look lost under Ben Johnson in the preseason to see their sentiment change.