After a turbulent rookie season, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams made notable steps of progress last season. There was still some frustrating inconsistency, but his critics will also fail to acknowledge the beyond his control shortcomings of his pass catchers.
Still, Williams managed to go from the QB16 in fantasy as a rookie in 2024 to the QB6 last year. The core of that rise was of course more of everything in a better-functioning offense, with seven more passing touchdowns than his rookie season and three rushing scores after he had none as a rookie.
Williams also lost a lot of passing yardage to drops last season, to say nothing of touchdowns some of those drops also costed him. 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns through the air would've been in play otherwise.
Add that to the idea he will take another step in refinement as a passer, and it's easy to have grand visions for Williams as a fantasy signal caller this year.
ESPN fantasy analyst goes all the way in on Caleb Williams
ESPN asked their fantasy staff for one bold 2026 prediction as the season nears. Matt Bowen went with "Caleb Williams will finish as QB1."
"Williams finished as the No. 5 QB in total scoring last season and scored 18.7 points per game (No. 7). We saw his playmaking skills, plus he provides a rushing boost (383 yards, three touchdowns). With a versatile and explosive receiving corps, led by tight end Colston Loveland, and an elite playcaller in Ben Johnson, I see a path for Williams to produce big-time numbers in 2026."
Williams has some key ingredients of the formula to finish as the QB1 in fantasy.
A nice array of skill possesion talent around him? Check. A defense that's expected to be bad, thus keeping his passing volume up on a weekly basis? Check. The cheat code of running ability/rushing production? Check.
Over last four seasons, with Week 18 as the cut-off, the QB1 in fantasy has averaged 412 fantasy points. Some big, unique seasons, via the ground and/orthe air, have been in there, but Williams has a viable path to get to, let's say, 400 fantasy points.
Using typical quarterback scoring (four points per passing touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards), what would that hypothetical stat line look like?
4,450 passing yards=178 fantasy points
37 passing toucdowns=148 fantasy points
450 rushing yards=45 fantasy points
5 rushing touchdowns=30 fantasy points
That's 401 fantasy points, with mostly very round numbers that are unlikely to be hit on the nose. But overall, give or take a bit here and there, those numbers don't feel out of reach for Williams this year.
Luther Burden, Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze all had stretches of elite fantasy production last season. The prospect of full, healthy seasons from all three raises Williams' fantasy ceiling this year. And, as mentioned, he was QB6 last year with slow starts or injuries impacting all three.
Read more: Bears rookie Zavion Thomas offers honest reaction to long TD vs. Titans
The way for fantasy managers to assuage any concerns about all those mouths to feed in the Bears' offense is easy. Capture all the passing game production by having Williams, and reap the rewards with a QB1 finish within the realm of possibilities.
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