Breakdown of key Caleb Williams stat reveals who the Bears' WR1 should really be

While it was not perfect, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams showed undeniable growth in his second season. The future is bright, and with some tweaks in some key margins the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft can take his place among the best in the NFL until further notice.

While Williams' inconsistent accuracy is a concern, he also didn't get much help at times. During the regular season, according to Next Gen Stats, he had the most passing yards lost to drops (404) as Bears' catchers had 29 drops (fifth-most in the league)

Drops can be a subjective stat based on the source, and they don't account for throws that may have been less than ideal but would be regarded as "should've been caught."

In general, going back through his rookie season, Williams has struggled to connect with a couple of his most prominent pass catchers on a consistent basis. While there are multiple tentacles to affect that, injuries, Williams' inconsistent accuracy, etc., it's definitely something to note moving forward.

Breakdown of key number for Caleb Williams shows who the Bears' WR1 should be

NFL Senior Researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno recently broke down Williams' completion percentage to what it was when targeting each of his top four wide receivers.

Among those four, Zaccheaus unsurprisingly had the most drops with six (according to PFF). Burden was second with five, followed by Odunze (four) and Moore (two). The eye might suggest more than four drops for Odunze, along the "gotta catch that" line

There are nuances in the completion percentage numbers Holzman-Escareno revealed this season. But what they undeniably show is that Williams had an immediate connection with Burden, and that connection bloomed late in the season, when the rookie played a large role in the Bears' offense.

According to Pro Football Reference and PFF, Williams had a 123.1 passer rating when targeting Burden during the regular season, with zero interceptions and an average of 10.9 yards per attempt/target.

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Burden's strong finish to his rookie season has him on an upward trajectory moving toward his second season. An injury-free offseason, factoring in what it did as a rookie, would allow him and Williams to keep building what already looked like an easy, instant rapport.

Not to discount or diminish anyone else's importance, but Burden is lined up as a sneaky bet to lead the Bears in targets next season.