Fantasy football managers who took a chance on Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams knew what they were getting into. The upside was undeniably good, but there were likely to be ups and downs as he learned to operate the offense in the fashion of head coach Ben Johnson.
Add in the element of potential late-season bad weather games, and the recipe for what has transpired in terms of Williams' fantasy production was set.
Here are Williams' weekly fantasy finishes this season heading into Week 14.
Week 1: QB9
Week 2: QB20
Week 3: QB1
Week 4: QB25
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: QB10
Week 7: QB27
Week 8: QB20
Week 9: QB1
Week 10: QB4
Week 11: QB22
Week 12: QB6
Week 13: QB25
If you're scoring at home, that's six top-10 finishes and six finishes as QB20 or worse en route to being QB9 in fantasy heading into Week 14. Ideally, Williams' fantasy managers have been able to navigate his ups and downs with a second viable quarterback. But with that in mind, he has likely had a good week or two while on the bench and a bad one when it seemed like he was a great start.
Caleb Williams' fantasy managers finally have a clear-cut direction moving forward
ESPN fantasy analyst Tristan Cockcroft has a weekly matchup rankings column where he offers a matchup to highlight (positively) and a matchup to avoid at each position.
For Week 14, he has Williams as the quarterback "matchup to avoid" against the Green Bay Packers.
"Week 2 of his four-week span of treacherous matchups -- also the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Cleveland Browns and Packers again the next two weeks -- brings the defense that has been the toughest against quarterbacks over the past five weeks. Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Williams ranks last in completion percentage (58.1%), second worst in off target rate (22.1%) and 22nd of 33 in touchdown rate (4.3%). He's a dangerous start in a playoff (or get-in) week."
The Packers' stinginess against quarterbacks over the last handful of weeks is skewed by Bryce Young (Week 9) and J.J. McCarthy (Week 12) combining for 189 passing yards with three interceptions against them. That said, only three quarterbacks (Dak Prescott, Jacoby Brissett, and Jared Goff) have topped 250 passing yards against them all season.
In Week 15, Williams will face the Cleveland Browns, who enter Week 14 allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (Yahoo! scoring). Then he gets the Packers again in Week 16.
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After a season of riding the wave, however expected it should've been, Williams' fantasy managers have a clear-cut direction to go with him from here on out. Bench him the next three weeks if at all possible, up to and including going to the waiver wire for a better option if necessary. Then, if Week 17 matters, revisit starting him against the San Francisco 49ers.