In many ways, and as expected, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams had tremendous growth in his second season. There's also plenty of room for more this season and beyond, rooted in increased comfort running Ben Johnson's offense.
If not for lost yardage from drops last year, Williams would have easily become the first Bears quarterback to have 4,000 passing yards in a season. He almost did it anyway, falling just 58 yards short.
Of course better accuracy would have also gotten it done comfortably, and Johnson openly mentioned the sheer volume of those perceived missed opportunities.
Still, WIlliams finished as QB6 in fantasy football last season and it's easy to see big potential for him this year.
Caleb Williams' 2026 potential has been confirmed once more
Finishing as the QB1 in fantasy football has been a three-man domain lately. Over the last eight seasons (2018-2025), only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes have done so. Russell Wilson is the last fantasy QB1 that wasn't one of those three, in 2017, of course.
Could Williams take that throne at some point? Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke thinks so, with the Bears' signal-caller among his three candidates to be the QB1 in fantasy this year. Value relative to current Average Draft Position was factored into the equation, but the overall premise stands on its own.
"Williams was a non-factor in single-quarterback leagues as a rookie, but the additions of Ben Johnson at head coach, Luther Burden III at wide receiver and Colston Loveland at tight end helped propel him to 19.0 fantasy points per game last season, tied for eighth-most among quarterbacks."
"Williams was not a consistent passer on a play-by-play basis. His 57.0% accuracy was second-worst among the 28 quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts, and his 23.6% uncatchable rate was the worst. Despite that, he managed a 71.1 regular-season PFF passing grade, right in the middle of the pack. His fantasy production was buoyed by volume and a strong 27-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.'
"Williams also ran 77 times for 383 yards, tied for seventh-most among quarterbacks, giving him a nice floor. Some statistical regression is likely given his accuracy concerns, but there is also reason to expect improvement in his second year in Ben Johnson's system. Williams’ young receivers played exceptionally well down the stretch last season, including in the playoffs, and should build on that momentum."
If Williams improves his accuracy and the Bears' pass catchers can reduce their volume of dropped passes, which correlates to some extent, that'll be an automatic boost to his fantasy output. His production as a runner was also rather inconsistent last year, so there's room for more there too.
Allen, the QB1 in fantasy last year, had 374.6 fantasy points in 16 games that encompassed the season in many leagues (through Week 17). Williams, the QB6, was exactly 69 points behind him. That's 4.3 fantasy points per game, which doesn't seem so daunting in that context.
Over the last five seasons, through Week 17 since the NFL expanded to 17-game regular seasons, the QB1 in fantasy has averaged 395.7 points per season. Using that mark as a rough indicator, Williams would have to score 90.1 more fantasy points than he did last season to be the QB1 this year. That breaks down to 5.6 more fantasy points per game.
Some extra passing touchdowns, if he's more accurate and his receivers don't drop as many (or any) would-be scores. More yards through the air, via better accuracy and fewer drops as well. Better consistency, and thus better production, as a runner.
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Alongside the general upside he has this year, you don't have to look very hard to see a path to Williams finishing as the QB1 in fantasy football this year.
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