Chicago Bears fans' biggest fears for Montez Sweat are too early to worry about
The Chicago Bears are not seeing quite the same production in the sack department that they saw from Montez Sweat last season.
Sweat had six sacks in nine games last year, and in 9 games played this year, he has recorded 3.5 sacks.
Is this a reason for Bears fans to worry?
Not particularly.
Sweat, for as great as his 12.5 sacks last season were, has not traditionally been a player who stacks sacks throughout his career. He played four full seasons and averaged 7.25 sacks, so even expecting eight or nine sacks per year would have been a reasonable improvement.
At his current pace, he is likely going to finish with six or seven sacks, which would put him just below his career rate entering 2023.
Beyond the per-season numbers, he is right on pace for his typical stat line when looking at pre-snap numbers. In fact, Sweat has a 15.7% pass rush win rate, per PFF. He had a 12.7% pass rush win rate last season during his breakout campaign. So, he is winning more in 2024, but getting home much less.
The big difference is that his hurries are not turning into pressures. Sweat has an 11.2% hurry rate, per PFF. His career rate is 6.8%, and last year it was 7.3%. It is typically lower because those hurries are becoming hits or sacks more often.
Sweat has a 1.9% sack rate this year and a 1.5% hit rate. Last year, he had a 1.93% hit rate and a 3% sack rate. If that 3% rate looks high, it is. For his career, Montez Sweat gets a sack on 2.26% of his pass rush attempts. That is including last year, entering last year, his sack rate was just 2%.
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So, his career rate was a full percentage point higher than last year's. Sweat has a 1.9% sack rate in 2024, and he is on pace to finish with around seven sacks. When the Bears traded for him, he had a 2% sack rate and averaged 7.25 sacks per year.
Sweat had an abnormal year in 2023, and is right about on his career rates in the production departments this year. In fact, his above-average win rate and hurry rate actually does speak to the fact that he is playing slightly above his Washington standards, he is just not seeing the production come in the same way. This may lead to him finishing the season better than he started, as some of these hurries become hits and then sacks.