After a fairly slow start, Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden had a growing role as his rookie season went along. Things culminated in a strong stretch at the perfect time for his most patient fantasy managers, as he was a top-10 wide receiver in points per game (full PPR scoring) from Week 14-17.
Heading toward his second season, everything is alinging for Burden to have a big breakout. Even though it's only May, the hype train already has enough speed that some fantasy analysts want to pump the brakes.
As of May 14, via Fantasy Pros' consensus Average Draft Position (ADP), Burden is WR23 in 0.5-point PPR and WR20 in full-point PPR. WR2 range feels perfect for his ADP, but as the summer goes on it's definitely possible Burden starts to push toward a threshold that threatens his status as an upside pick.
New data point fortifies how Luther Burden is headed for a Year 2 breakout
Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus has Burden among his three second-year players who are poised for improvement, and he hit all the well-worn notes that fuel the breakout buzz. An increased role as his rookie season went along. The Bears' offseason trade of wide receiver DJ Moore opened up a bigger target share. An elite yards per route run mark last season.
As the league's offenses trend toward having more tight ends on the field, and the Bears were top-six in the league last season in plays run out of "12" and "13" personnel (according to Sumer Sports), Jahnke offered a piece of data that should assuage concerns fantasy managers might have about the impact on Burden's role.
"Burden ranked third among NFL wide receivers in yards per route run (2.69) as a rookie, trailing only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was especially effective out of 12 personnel, generating 6.51 yards per route run — the highest mark by any wide receiver in any personnel grouping with at least 40 routes run."
Jahnke further noted that the addition of Sam Roush in the draft might have the Bears lean more toward using 12 personnel, or more than they already do, but Burden's success in that personnel grouping speaks for itself (and loudly).
"An expanded role combined with increased usage in favorable personnel groupings positions Burden for a breakout second season. Experienced fantasy managers are unlikely to let him slip far in drafts, but he could still emerge as a value in more casual leagues."
Read more: D'Andre Swift stat further proves the Bears found his ideal role last season
It's fair to assume Burden will have some week-to-week inconsistency this year, depending on game script, etc. But led by his proficiency when there are multiple tight ends on the field, he may lead the Bears' wide receivers in snaps, and the residual of that keeps the hype train on the rails.
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