At first glance, the Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round would seem like a great advantage for the home team. The Rams are a dome team that had road games in San Francisco, Jacksonville, Charlotte, and Nashville this season. The two cold-weather cities they could have played in, Philadelphia and Baltimore, were in the books by mid-October.
The early forecast for Chicago next Sunday looks rough, with wind chills around or a little below 0 and actual air temperatures in the single digits. Even if there's some positive adjustment to come, as in "warmer" conditions, it's still going to be Chicago in mid-January.
But then we have to remember the Rams' quarterback is Matthew Stafford. While he has had a dome as his home stadium through his entire career, 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions meant plenty of late-season games in Chicago and Green Bay. So the cold will not, or should not, notably bother him like it might some other signal callers who play their home games indoors.
When the Divisional Round matchup was set, Steve Letizia of Halas Beat noted how Stafford struggled outdoors in somewhat cold weather this season. Then he had to correct, noting that Stafford had only played one outdoor game when the temperature was below 50 degrees — Week 13 against the Carolina Panthers.
Wait one of those games was also in a dome. So he only played 1 game not in a dome. It was against the Panthers in Week 13. It was 45 degrees. He threw 2 picks and had a 55.8 PFF grade in a loss
— Steve Letizia (@CFCBears) January 12, 2026
The Rams' regular-season loss to the Panthers was one of Stafford's worst games of an MVP-caliber season, where he led the league in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46). But it's also fair to say Carolina's pass defense is a little better than what the Bears bring on a consistent basis.
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Stafford had started 12 games at Soldier Field in his career. Without checking the weather reports for each day, let's narrow it to games played from mid-November onward to see how he did in what was most likely cold Chicago weather.
Nov. 13, 2011: 33-for-63, 329 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 interceptions
Nov. 10, 2013: 18-for-35, 219 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception
Dec. 21, 2014: 22-for-39 for 243 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interception
Jan. 3, 2016; 28-for-39 for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
Nov. 19, 2017: 21-for-31 for 299 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
Nov. 11, 2018: 25-for-42 for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions
Dec. 16, 2020: 27-for-42 for 402 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception
To be fair, a 37-year-old Stafford might not handle the cold as well as the 23-32-year-old version of him did. But this seven-start sample is more good than bad in what was surely less than 50-degree air temps in Chicago (if not far worse in most cases), with four games with at least 298 yards through the air and five wins.
That said, in nine career starts when the temperature has been below 20 degrees (h/t to Erik Lambert of Sports Mockery), Stafford is 1-8 with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
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It's fair to assume a lot of Stafford's Rams teammates won't deal with the cold weather very well next Sunday. But he has been there and done several times before, so he probably won't have a huge problem functioning as he typically would beyond the finger injury on his throwing hand.