News of D'Andre Swift's contract with the Chicago Bears came so early in the "legal tampering window" of 2024 free agency that it had to be all but done before negotiations were permitted to start. So they clearly wanted him, and it's fair to assume a three-year, $24 million deal (the years as much as the money) was the best he could've gotten by some margin.
As expected, with a lack of better options as well as his contract, Swift was force-fed 253 carries and 295 touches last year. To his credit, he also played every game for the first time in his career despite the big workload and a history of getting banged up when attempts have been made to give him more work.
A struggling Bears' offense and an offensive line that was not up to par didn't help, but Swift's efficiency was awful last year. A career-low 3.8 yards per carry is one thing, but his -174 rushing yards over expected (per Next Gen Stats) was the worst among running backs with at least 90 carries last year. His Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (-0.69) and Rush Percentage Over Expected (28.8 percent) were also last among that group of running backs.
Chicago's offseason overhaul of the offensive line was certainly done with an eye on getting more out of the ground game, and competent coaching should naturally lead to a more proficient offense. Everyone with a notable role in the Bears' offense stands to benefit, including Swift if he can maintain a stronghold on the lead back role.
Of course, with the arguably underutilized Roschon Johnson in place and rookie Kyle Monangai making a strong early impression, Swift's hold on the workhorse role feels flimsy.
Fantasy analyst provides a very rosy view of D'Andre Swift for 2025
Last season, Swift finished as the RB19 in fantasy football (standard scoring, 0.5-point PPR and full PPR). Similar to his 2023 season with the Philadelphia Eagles, he was fairly good early (four top-12 finishes in his first seven games, and faded late (RB30 from Week 12-16; full PPR).
Touchdowns are prime currency in fantasy football. They can also be very random, and vulnerable to all kinds of variables outside a player's control.
In terms of expected touchdowns vs. actual touchdowns from last season, Matt Okada of 4for4.com recently took a look at three running backs who seem to be lined for a particular correction this year; two who should score more and one who should score less.
Swift was tabbed as one of the two backs who should score more in 2025, with his actual total touchdowns (six) last season falling short of his 9.2 expected total touchdowns.
"Chicago was bottom five in both points and yards last season, and no team had fewer red-zone drives. When the Bears did find their way into the red zone, Swift saw 31 opportunities ... but scored on just three. His 9.7% red-zone TD rate ranked fourth-lowest among backs with 30+ red-zone opportunities and was the lowest of his career by far."
"Swift is primed for a situational bump in scoring opportunities and a mathematical bump in scoring efficiency. Even if he saw just 31 red-zone opportunities again, a league-average 18% touchdown rate would produce an additional two or three touchdowns in that area alone. But if the improved offense translates into growth in scoring opportunities, and his efficiency sees a spike as well, Swift could be a sneaky bet for double-digit scrimmage scores in 2025 — something he hasn't accomplished since his rookie year."
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Much of the above analysis seems to be working with an assumption Swift will pretty much carry his overall touch volume from last season to this year, despite recent evidence his efficiency drops when his touch volume accumulates over the course of a season. He also should not be exempt from why he was so inefficient in the red zone last year, and if he loses volume there so would go some prime scoring opportunities.
With an ADP in high-end RB3 range right now regardless of scoring format, Swift is a screaming value in fantasy drafts and that may stick right through July and August. But there's a difference between a nice return on that draft investment and Swift getting to double-digit total touchdowns this year. The rationale for the latter falls to pieces with some deeper scrutiny of his situation.