In line with how his rookie season was mark by a lack of consistency, with two head coaches and three offensive coordinators, Caleb Williams' fantasy production was also up and down. He had five weeks where he finished as a top-10 fantasy signal caller, and nine weeks where he finished outside the top-20.
So, it's no surprise that Williams finished as the QB15 or QB16 in fantasy, depending on whether the cutoff was Week 17 or Week 18. At a critical time of the fantasy season, though, from Week 11-Week 16, he was the QB8 (he was QB10 from Week 11-17).
The focus of the Bears' offseason was to put Williams on a better track, from coaching to bolstering the offensive line and adding a couple more weapons in the draft. From all of that, better consistency should naturally flow this year.
The amount of pass rush pressure he was under as a rookie is a broad issue that has to be fixed, but Williams made a little bit of chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what. According to Pro Football Focus, his 2.8 scrambles and 21.9 rushing yards per game on scrambles were fifth-best among quarterbacks last, which helped yield the seven-most rushing yards (489) at the position.
Despite offering nothing as runner, Jared Goff was a top-10 fantasy quarterback each of the last three years with Bears head coach Ben Johnson as his offensive coordinator. It's fair to assume Johnson, even if he wants his quarterback to operate efficiently from the pocket more than anything, will not stifle Williams' natural gifts as a runner.
Caleb Williams gets automatic (if a little unfair) fantasy draft designation
In general, the Bears feel like a boom-or-bust team in 2025. Either things go well and they are in the mix for a playoff spot, or it's another fairly dismal season with 6-8 wins.
That boom-or-bust potential transfers to players as fantasy assets, with Williams easily atop the list there. So it's not surprising Ray Garvin of Yahoo! put the Bears' quarterback on a recent short list of the riskiest players to gamble on in fantasy drafts.
"Everyone is excited for Williams in 2025 and for good reason. Ben Johnson, one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, is now in Chicago. He turned Jared Goff into a top-seven QB in points per game at 19.8 in Detroit and helped him to the best fantasy finish of his career. Williams is a far better runner than Goff and steps into an offense with legit weapons."
Garvin noted Williams ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking), which is right in line with his current ADP (Average Draft Position) of QB15. The fairly dismal reports about the Bears' offense coming out of training camp of course had to be mentioned, whether they end up being meaningful or not.
Fantasy managers who wait to draft a quarterback this year will surely end up with Williams somewhere on their radar, but Garvin hit the bottom line about having him as your QB1.
"If you draft Williams as your QB1, you are betting big on him hitting early. If he struggles out of the gate, you could be scrambling for answers in September. The upside is real but so is the risk."
A weekly "should I start him?" dilemma will carry on with Williams into his second season until he shows otherwise. And there will almost surely be a week early in the season where he has a big game while riding the bench for the majority of his fantasy managers.
That said, fantasy managers who believe in Williams' upside for this year should willing to wait (within reason) for it to come. Drafting him comes with the automatic idea of drafting another quarterback who has less perceived upside to navigate the potential volatility, which stands to be more of a thing early in the season.
Read more: DJ Moore is fully embracing challenge of expanded role in Bears offense
Taking the plunge on Williams in a fantasy draft doesn't have to be a season-crusher, as Garvin lightly insinuated. The idea of risk attached to him as a fantasy quarterback this year is also not new, even if it can be presented in a lot of different ways.