If Luther Burden could have entered the 2024 NFL Draft, after two seasons at Missouri, he might have been a first-round pick coming off an 86-catch, 1,200-yard season. But alas he had to return to school, and a down season last season (61 receptions for 676 yards) dropped him to the second round of April's draft.
Some draft analysts still loved Burden despite a down final college season and flimsy questions about his work ethic, and the Chicago Bears ended his fall out of the first round early in the second at No. 39 overall.
As head coach Ben Johnson tries to bring what he did as Detroit Lions' offense coordinator to the Bears' offense, Burden broadly landed as a interesting player who has a chance to make a big immediate impact.
Then, Burden missed most of OTAs and all of mandatory minicamp with what Johnson called a soft tissue injury. When training camp is here, there may be genuine competition from Olamide Zaccheaus to be the Bears' No. 3 wide receiver.
Bears coach Ben Johnson's full comments on WR Luther Burden: “Yeah, he wasn't there today. We're working through a little soft tissue deal with him right now, and remains to be seen when we'll get him back.”
— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) May 21, 2025
Fantasy analyst sets lofty bar for Luther Burden
Burden's range outcomes for his rookie season feels very wide, to the point his appeal to fantasy managers is better in dynasty leagues this year than it is in re-draft leagues.
Matt Waldman of Football Guys took a strong stance on the positive side for Burden this year, leaning into his own history of tabbing rookie wide receivers who produced right away, how Burden should not be pigeonholed as "gadget player", the expected rise of Caleb Williams, etc.
Waldman used Burden's name in the most recent vein of Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey, who was vastly undervalued heading into fantasy drafts last year before delivering a WR1 (top-12) campaign as a rookie. Similarly, Burden's current ADP outside the top-50 wide receivers in a double-digit round screams value and nothing but upside for re-drafters.
The time Burden missed in OTAs may set him up for a slow start to his rookie season. Injury wasn't a factor for Detroit Lions' wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021, but a fast finish (after Johnson became the Lions' passing game coordinator, coincidentally or not) led to him finishing with 90 catches for over 900 yards as a rookie.
Waldman has an incredibly lofty projected fantasy finish for Burden this year (WR20; full PPR), but the bottom line he landed on is obvious.
"You won't have to take Luther Burden III as a top-20 fantasy receiver to find out if he can match these projections. Like McConkey, Brown, Jefferson, and Olave, Burden presents a potential bargain. Right now, he's available in rounds 9-12, and as the injury concerns mount, he could dip lower."
"Early-round picks are about safe floors and high ceilings. Picks after the 10th round are about high ceilings at a great value. Luther Burden III is a worthwhile candidate because, like McConkey, there will be enough naysayers all summer to keep the risk low."
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Any plans Johnson has for Burden this year have surely been slowed by his absence from offseason work. But it's far too early for his path to a good rookie season to be completely derailed, and fantasy managers should be aware of the dip they can buy into during their 2025 drafts.