On-pace is always iffy territory to dive into, because it usually means a player didn't fulfill the pace they were on for some reason. But if not for a concussion in Week 5 last season, Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker would have easily had his third straight 100-plus tackle campaign. Overall, he was on pace for 136 total tackles (78 solo), three sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and three interceptions before the injury.
Of course, that was also the third concussion in as many NFL seasons for Brisker. It was also clearly the worst one yet, since it cost him the final 12 games, and he never appeared close to returning. He's good to go now, and he'd like to not talk about his concussion history, but there is some genuine concern for his long-term playing future.
Brisker is also set to be a free agent next March, so he'll be plenty motivated to prove he deserves a nice second contract. With the Bears lacking great depth at safety, his ability to stay on the field will be critical for new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
Jaquan Brisker is lined up for a bounce-back in 2025
Jonathon Macri of Pro Football Focus laid it out in fantasy football terms by tabbing Brisker as a top IDP bounce-back candidate. Still, the context for a rebound campaign in 2025 easily applies more generally.
"Brisker was on an incredible IDP pace last year through just five games before he suffered a concussion that took him out for the rest of the season. Obviously, it’s always scary when it comes to head trauma, especially when the player is taken out for the entire season, not unlike Chris Olave last year. For Brisker, the hope and belief are that he will be healthy and ready to start 2025, which should have him back in play as a top IDP safety option."
"Prior to the concussion, Brisker was delivering a 90th percentile tackles versus expected per game rate, while averaging 16.0 IDP points per game – good for the S4 overall during that stretch. That level of production has been the norm for Brisker so far in the NFL, as he ranked 84th percentile in tackles versus expected as a rookie and 98th percentile in 2023, so bouncing back for him means delivering at a top-12 rate for his position."
"Dennis Allen takes over as the Bears' new defensive coordinator, which should keep Brisker in a decent position to continue working around the line of scrimmage, as he always has. Will Harris spent about 30% of his defensive snaps in the box last season, which was the highest rate among the New Orleans Saints safeties, and considering Brisker’s strength from that deployment, he should once again play around that 35-40% mark in the box, which puts him back on track for another strong tackling season."
In an interview this offseason (h/t to Bears Wire), Brisker revealed Allen, then the New Orleans Saints head coach, told him at the NFL Combine the Saints were going to take him with the 49th overall pick in the 2022 draft.
Of course, the Bears took Brisker at pick 48, putting the kibosh on a promise Allen wasn't ultimately able to deliver. Finally, together now, Allen is undoubtedly aware that the most overall productive season Brisker has had (2023) came when he spent nearly 44 percent of his snaps in the box (according to Pro Football Focus).
Read more: New trade proposal lands as flimsy attempt to ship Cole Kmet out of Chicago
Of course it will all come down to Brisker staying on the field, or most specifically not suffering another head injury. But if he stays healthy, a defensive coordinator who's presumably eager to work with him might unveil the best version of Brisker yet as he makes a push for a nice pay day.