Luther Burden's fantasy managers shouldn't fret over his odd production split

When it came to the Chicago Bears' skill position group heading into this season, fantasy football managers had multiple quandaries. Which running back was preferable--D'Andre Swift or Kyle Monangai? Which pass catcher was the most ideal pick--Colston Loveland, Luther Burden or Rome Odunze? You could've casted your lot in any direction and ended up fine when it was all said and done.

Entering Week 9, Burden is WR12 in full and 0.5-point PPR scoring. He has been the most consistently productive Bears' pass catcher from Week 1-8, with more than 60 yards and/or a touchdown in six games. The exceptions were in bad weather in Week 2, and with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum under center in Week 5.

Over the last four weeks (Week 5-8), Burden is No. 6 among wide receivers in full PPR points (68.7).

The most notable thing regarding Burden's production, lately and all season thus far, is his in-game splits. Over the last two games, he has 10 receptions for 183 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets in the first half. In the second half of those games, he has totaled one catch for three yards on two targets (all in Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks).

So far this season, as noted by Kyle Menton of Fantasy Points, 73.1 percent of Burden's receiving yardage has come in the first half of games (400 out of 547 yards). 61.9 percent of his receptions (26 of 42), and all three of his touchdowns have also come in the first half of games. A strong share of his second half production for the season (five receptions for 51 yards) came in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons.

Some of that lack of second half production of Burden is the Bears simply not passing the ball a lot, as they control time of possession and finish wins with the run game. Another piece of that is the second-year receiver's fairly low overall snap share in a lot of games. Yet another piece is opposing defenses likely working harder to take him away, which they should've been doing from the start of the game, and Caleb Williams has multiple other options.

As long as Luther Burden continues to deliver bottom line production, his fantasy managers needn't worry

As Menton also noted, 72.6 percent of Burden's fantasy production through Week 8 has come in first halves. Per Fantasy Points Data, Menton also highlighted Burden's first half efficiency.

Here is how Burden's efficiency ranks if we just look at the first half of play:

3.77 YPRR (WR2)
0.29 TPRR (WR7)
0.160 1D/RR (WR3)
5.17 YPTOE (WR3)
+0.657 EPA/Target (WR7)
0.79 FP/RR (WR2)

-If his 1st-half efficiency carried into the 2nd half, he would be averaging 20.2 FPG (WR4)

- If we just look at his 1st-half efficiency since Week 3 (0.97 FP/RR), that jumps to 24.7 FPG (WR2)

Ian Hartitz of Rotowire broke down Burden's first half/second half split more concisely.

Fantasy football is a bottom-line business. How production is delivered comes with context and nuance that has to be accounted for, but it's also easy to overreact to some things. Burden's splits in the first half and second half this season has some levels of explanation attached, and he has still delivered for his fantasy managers.

It's worth wondering if a correction is coming. Burden could start playing more snaps. The Bears could start playing more competitive games, which would bring a tilt to more passing in the second half. Williams also missed three games, and one of the ones he played in was the aforementioned weather game.

Burden is already a WR1 in fantasy so far this season. But there are absolutely multiple angles of room for better things going forward, which is a refreshing thought for his fantasy managers who are pining for more consistency within games.

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