A breakout stretch to finish his rookie season brought serious fantasy buzz around Chicago Bears tight end Colston Loveland heading into this season. There was some natural risk involved with investing a notable draft pick in him, but through five games, it's been about as rough as it can get.
Through Week 5, Loveland is outside the top 30 tight ends regardless of scoring format. He has less than 20 yards three times in five games, with five or fewer targets four times.
After Week 1, Loveland made a list of five buy-low candidates in fantasy from Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus. After Week 5, the Bears' tight end is back on the list.
"Loveland has averaged 4.8 PPR points per game this season, ranking 38th among tight ends. He has 22 targets, which ranks 17th, but the quality of those passes has been a problem. Only 59.1% of his targets have been catchable, and only 40.9% have been considered accurate. Most tight ends have a catchable target rate somewhere in the 80s."
"Part of the problem is the quarterbacks. Caleb Williams could be back this week, and while Williams hasn’t been the most accurate quarterback, he should get more catchable targets Loveland’s way."
It could be argued that Loveland's entire problem over five games this season is the Bears' quarterbacks, including a couple of notable missed opportunities when Williams was under center in Week 1. But he showed signs of life in Tyson Bagent's first start (six catches for 57 yards), before another dud in Week 5.
Patience should still be a virtue for Colston Loveland fantasy managers
As Jahnke noted, the immediate upcoming schedule for Loveland is fairly average. The Atlanta Falcons (Week 6) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 9) are in the bottom half of the league (as in, easiest matchup) in fantasy points allowed to tight ends so far this season, while the Seattle Seahawks (Week 8) are in the middle of the pack against the position. The New England Patriots (Week 7) would be comfortably among the 10 stingiest defenses to the position if they hadn't faced Brock Bowers in Week 5.
But after the Bears' Week 10 bye, very favorable matchups are on the slate for Loveland against the New Orleans Saints (Week 11), Detroit Lions (Week 12 and Week 17), and Miami Dolphins (Week 14). Even Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills, if the mid-December weather cooperates in upstate New York, looks pretty good.
It's gotten to a point where Loveland has been dropped in a small percentage of fantasy leagues. That's an overreaction to his early struggles, but benching him also requires having a clear-cut better option on a roster or available on the waiver wire.
Read more: One piece of data sums up just how badly Bears need Caleb Williams back
It really can't get any worse for Loveland, as this slow start feels different than the slow start to his rookie season. Better days have to be coming, and with that, his fantasy managers should continue being patient before hopefully getting a full and well-timed payoff after the bye.
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