Playoff projections reveal Bears' most likely first-round opponent

Who's it going to be?
Chicago Bears, Ben Johnson
Chicago Bears, Ben Johnson | Todd Rosenberg/GettyImages

With two weeks remaining in the regular season, the Chicago Bears still have plenty to play for. At this point, it's about earning the right to host a playoff game, and that could play a significant role.

But, the big question is, who would the Bears end up facing in the first round of the playoffs?

It all depends on how the final two weeks shake out, but if we're going based on a straightforward criterion, it isn't hard to figure out who Chicago will end up playing and where the game will take place.

To keep it as straightforward as possible, let's use ESPN's playoff machine to project the final two games for all teams involved. For context, the most likely scenarios include the Bears facing either the San Francisco 49ers or the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round.

The Chicago Bears are projected to take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card Round

Again, if we're keeping this simple, let's base the final two weeks on a couple of different things. For the Bears, we'll base it on home-field advantage. Taking on the 49ers and Lions, with both being tough matchups, home-field advantage will come into play here.

Bears' final two games (current record: 11-4)

Week

Bears' opponent

CHI home or away?

Projected winner

16

49ers

@ SF

49ers

17

Lions

vs. DET

Bears

Bears' projected final regular season record: 12-5

For Green Bay, let's use winning percentage, since their matchups will be a bit easier if the Ravens don't have Lamar Jackson and Green Bay is simply the better team. Meanwhile, the Vikings may put up a fight, but again, the Packers are the better squad.

Packers' final two games (current record: 9-5-1)

Week

Packers' opponent

Better record?

Projected winner

16

Ravens

GB

Packers

17

Vikings

GB

Packers

Packers' projected final regular season record: 11-5-1

Now, for the 49ers, we will use home-field advantage as the criteria. These are both going to be hard-fought battles, but home field could be an enormous advantage here.

49ers' final two games (current record: 11-4)

Week

49ers' opponent

Home or away?

Projected winner

16

Bears

vs. CHI

49ers

17

Seahawks

vs. SEA

49ers

49ers' projected final regular season record: 13-4

With the 49ers winning out, they wind up as the NFC's no. 1 seed.

The Bears remain the no. 2 seed, with the second-best record out of all division winners.

The Packers, indeed, finish as the no. 7 seed, which means it'll be the Bears and the Packers in the NFC Wild Card Round.

Read more: Former Packers All-Pro says quiet part out loud about Ben Johnson's cardinal sin

Are we ready for Round 3 of what's been a phenomenal, dramatic series so far in 2025?

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