Now that the rookie season is over for Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson, we have a better idea of what to expect from the former fourth-round pick during the rest of his NFL career.
Johnson finished with 352 rushing yards, and 209 receiving yards. Based on his draft status and usage, which players started their careers similarly, and what were the results of their careers?
Best comparison for Roschon Johnson after his rookie season with the Chicago Bears
1. Jamaal Williams
Jamaal Williams was always a best-case outcome for a player with the size, athletic skill set, and draft capital of Johnson. Williams had 556 yards on the ground and 262 receiving yards, so it was a tick better, but Johnson is still not far off from blooming into the player Williams became later in his career.
Williams is entering year eight but also has just one 1,000-yard season.
2. Latavius Murray
Latavius Murray was drafted in a similar range and had 424 yards on the ground with 143 through the air. You could argue that while Murray did not have a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season, he did have just as good of a career as Williams. Murray is going on ten strong years in the NFL.
Murray had 1,000 yards in his second season, he had 12 touchdowns in his third season, and his year-to-year production was better. Murray also had his best rushing production with the team that drafted him, but Williams did not. Still, Murray was only with the team that drafted him for three years.
3. Alfred Blue
Alfred Blue had 528 rushing yards, and 113 receiving yards as a rookie. He saw more carries in his second year and showed some promise, but never got a real workload after that. Blue played just five NFL seasons and averaged 481 yards per season.
4. Robert Turbin
Robert Turbin posted 354 yards rushing, and 181 yards receiving as a rookie. Bears fans will not love it, because it is not the most optimistic, but Turbin may be the most realistic outcome. Turbin never had more than 400 yards in a season, but he also lasted nine NFL seasons, mainly because he could be relied on in pass protection and on special teams. This is the type of floor that will keep Johnson in the NFL until he is 30, despite the fact that he may never get a real workload.
5. Jaylen Samuels and Lorenzo Taliaferro
Samuels had 256 rushing and 199 receiving yards, while Taliaferro had 292 rushing and 114 through the air. The issue with both is that neither was able to improve or even repeat what they did as rookies. This would be the worst outcome for Roscon Johnson.