A Chicago Bears Mock draft with lots of trades in the 2024 NFL draft

Offensive line analytics and the reason to draft OL early

Left tackles are hard to find, and the Chicago Bears have a decent one. Alt would definitely be the pick if he were available. But Paris Johnson Jr. didn't make it to the Bears last year, and Alt is a better prospect than he was. It won't happen. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Go Buckeyes) won't make it to the ninth overall selection either. I could argue trading up for either player wouldn't be a bad idea. In my opinion, MHJ and Alt are worth the gamble and loss of draft capital over sticking and picking for Rome Odunze or Olumuyiwa Fashanu.

I need to share some data with you. Did you know that the NFL's historical draft success chart shows a hit rate, meaning players who become consistent starters, of 83% for offensive line prospects drafted in the first round? 70% of linebackers hit, 67% of tight ends, and the lowest percentage belongs to running backs and defensive line at 58%. The analytics department will have a great argument about what the Bears should do with the ninth overall selection. I traded mine. I will explain that soon.

If you break down the offensive line from 2013 to 2017, you will find that 59% of the offensive tackles hit, 50% of guards hit, and 68% of centers hit. I know, I went from talking about them over the last 100 years to limited years, but that is the quick data I pulled up. So why don't NFL teams prioritize the center position more? Honestly, because it's commonly known to be less important as a tackle. Centers have help and tend to help the other interior offensive line. Tackles play on an island and sometimes get help from tight ends and guards, but it's not as common. Moving on.