History says Chicago Bears are unlikely to draft this player if they own the top pick

There isn't a guarantee that the Chicago Bears own the top spot in the 2024 NFL Draft, but their chances of being at the top of the draft order are very high thanks to a 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers. Should the Bears finish with the top pick in the draft, it's unlikely that they look at selecting a certain player fans are hoping to see land on this roster.

Chicago Bears, 2024 NFL Draft
Chicago Bears, 2024 NFL Draft / Jon Durr/GettyImages
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Chicago Bears, Marvin Harrison Jr.
Chicago Bears, Marvin Harrison, Jr. / Rich Schultz/GettyImages

History says the Bears wouldn't draft Marvin Harrison, Jr. with top pick

I don't think you can go wrong with either option, but I still don't see either of them going first overall and here is why. The NFL is a quarterback league. Teams are constantly looking to land a top-10 producing quarterback. With prospects like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams, the value of the first-overall pick this year should be much higher than it was last year. This means taking Marvin Harrison, Jr. or a player like Fashanu with the first-overall pick is highly unlikely. In fact, the chances of Harrison going first overall are slim to none based on history -- no matter what fans are rooting for.

Since 1936, only three wide receivers have been selected with the first-overall pick. You'd be surprised to know that guys like Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson were not included in that list. In fact, the last time a wide receiver went first overall was in 1996 when the Jets drafted Keyshawn Johnson. Prior to Johnson going first overall, the Patriots selected Irving Fryar with the top pick in 1984, and the 49ers drafted Dave Parks in 1964. This means in 87 drafts, 84 of them saw positions other than wide receiver going first. Most often, those positions are quarterback, left tackle and EDGE rusher.

It is more likely that if Marvin Harrison, Jr. were to end up in a Chicago Bears uniform, it's because the Bears did not own the first-overall pick and took him at three. Or, the team traded back no further than three, watched quarterbacks go first and second, and then they took Harrison. Honestly, from a value standpoint, that's the best outcome. Although, I know many want to see a quarterback change and if Ryan Poles agrees, the Bears are likely to take a quarterback with the top pick and once again not Harrison.