Biggest reason why the Chicago Bears should not draft Bijan Robinson in first round
The Chicago Bears should not waste a pick on Bijan Robinson
This has nothing to do with scheme fit as Bijan Robinson would fit in any scheme.
This has nothing to do with the talent-level of the player not being worthy of a first-round pick.
The biggest reason that the Chicago Bears should not be taking Bijan Robinson at nine or anywhere else in the first round is the downgrade of the positional value.
I went back to 2004 and here is what I found regarding first-round running backs and the correlation to Super Bowls.
Running Backs Selected in the First Round by Year (2004 thru 2022):
- 2022 - None
- 2021 - Najee Harris / Travis Etienne
- 2020 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- 2019 - Josh Jacobs
- 2018 - Saquon Barkley / Rashaad Penny / Sony Michel
- 2017 - Leonard Fornette / Christian McCaffrey
- 2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
- 2015 - Todd Gurley / Melvin Gordon
- 2014 - None
- 2013 - None
- 2012 - Trent Richardson / Doug Martin / David Wilson
- 2011 - Mark Ingram
- 2010 - C.J. Spiller / Ryan Matthews / Jahvid Best
- 2009 - Knowshon Moreno / Donald Brown / Beanie Wells
- 2008 - Darren McFadden / Jonathan Stewart / Felix Jones / Rashard Mendenhall / Chris Johnson
- 2007 - Adrian Peterson / Marshawn Lynch
- 2006 - Reggie Bush / Laurence Maroney / DeAngelo Williams / Joseph Addai
- 2005 - Ronnie Brown / Cedric Benson / Cadillac Williams
- 2004 - Steven Jackson / Chris Perry / Kevin Jones
- 2003 - Willis McGahee / Larry Johnson
Let's unpack this information a little first. It's easy to see that a shift from a running to a passing league took place in the mid to late 2000s. Over the last 10 years, one or fewer running backs were selected in the first round six times. Before that, we only saw that happen once (2011). In fact, in seven of the 10 years, prior, three or more running backs were selected. That has only happened once over the latest 10 years (2018). The league has clearly seen a shift in positional value at running back and there is no reason to reach for one in 2023. This is not the only reason though.