Biggest reason why the Chicago Bears should not draft Bijan Robinson in first round
Running backs in the first round seem like the worst path to a Super Bowl
Now, we are going to use the above data to see the real reason why I wouldn't touch Bijan Robinson or any other running back in the first round if I was Ryan Poles. Out of these 41 running backs, can you guess how many of them have won a Super Bowl? The answer is six.
Now, the better question. How many of these running backs won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them? The answer is four. Again, six out of 41 running backs selected in the first round over the last 20 years have won a Super Bowl, and only four of those six won with the team that drafted them in the first round. That's less than a 10% hit rate on running backs helping their drafting team win a Super Bowl.
Looking at the most recent winner first and moving backward, Clyde Edwards-Helaire just won a ring with the Kansas City Chiefs last season despite not seeing a snap after Week 10. He lost his starting spot to a seventh-round draft pick Isiah Pacheco. Next up was Leonard Fornette in 2020. He did not win with the Jaguars but instead won by following Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Before Fornette was Sony Michel. Sony Michel won in his rookie season with the Patriots back in 2018.
Marshawn Lynch was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the first round and did not win a Super Bowl until 2014 with the Seattle Seahawks. Reggie Bush and Rashard Mendenhall helped their drafting teams win Super Bowls - Bush in 2009 and Mendenhall during his rookie season in 2008.
For three teams, taking a running back early was even worse. Three of these 41 running backs only lasted two years in the league. Yikes.
As you can see, taking a running back in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft would be a mistake. I do not care how exciting it might seem to land a player like Bijan Robinson. There is too much risk and the cost clearly does not outweigh the reward. Not to mention, remember the last time the Chicago Bears took a first-round running back out of Texas? Just say no to Bijan Robinson in Chicago.