The 2023 regular season is coming to a close soon. The Chicago Bears are expected to come away with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft (via the Panthers) and also have a top-15 pick of their own. If you go on social media, fans are constantly bickering and debating what Ryan Poles should do regarding the quarterback position (never mind the coaching staff for now). It is close to a 50/50 split on which quarterback fans want to see in Chicago next year. The problem is, that most fans are not looking at the full picture before making their opinion known.
Let's break down exactly what the team is looking at should they secure (95.5% odds) that top pick in next year's draft.
Justin Fields
When looking at the Justin Fields side of things, I think continuity is at play here. The team is 4-2 over it's last six games and that includes two victories over divisional opponents — Vikings and Lions. With two games left against beatable opponents, the Bears could actually come away with an 8-9 record. That is impressive after starting the year 0-4. There are some who believe Matt Eberflus has done enough recently to remain the Chicago Bears head coach. I flirted with the idea myself, but I'm not one of them. Should they keep Eberflus though, Fields has a better chance of staying.
What are the Chicago Bears getting by keeping Justin Fields?
Well, the Bears would be getting an elite athlete who has elite skills and traits. The only problem is that he is not consistent and this is the whole reason why we are even having this conversation. Fields looks lights out one game and struggles the next. The playcalling doesn't help most of the time and we've seen some awful drops lately — looking at you Robert Tonyan! Not enough Fields fans are objective with the situation though. Fields has flaws. He has improved sure, but he needs to improve even more and quickly. He's entering Year 4 of his rookie deal.
However, this also means they get whatever they can in a trade of the first-overall pick. Rumors are that Chicago could come away with three first-round picks. That would be quite impressive. They could also come away with a similar trade to what they received last year when trading the first pick overall to the Panthers. That trade included two first-round picks, an additional future second-round pick and even D.J. Moore. Could Ryan Poles land another strong veteran player in a deal? What if it was Maxx Crosby from the Raiders? What if it was Daron Payne from Washington?
At a minimum, Ryan Poles needs to look at Justin Fields and say, this isn't just about Justin Fields and his potential future contract (they don't technically need to decide on a contract extension right away and could even ignore his fifth-year option). No, it's about what that first-overall pick is worth. Should Ryan Poles get three firsts to trade down from first overall, that is insane value. Poles would need to know for a fact that Caleb Williams is a lock to be good to elite if he were to walk away from that trade value.
For fun, let's assume they trade down within the top five, land a player like Marvin Harrison, Jr., Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu or maybe even Brock Bowers depending on how far down they go. As it stands the Bears own the eighth pick too (their own). Mock drafts have shown them moving down one or two spots, grabbing Marvin Harrison and then also grabbing one of the aforementioned prospects. They will have two firsts in 2025 and 2026 (if things go well) and they can replace Fields then.
What are the Chicago Bears getting by drafting Caleb Williams?
In this scenario, Ryan poles has determined that he wants to move on from Justin Fields and draft a quarterback. My top prospect (and most others') is Caleb Williams. Drake Maye and a few others could also be an option should Poles determine one of them a better prospect than Williams. For the purpose of this exercise, we are going to determine that Williams is their guy and they will need to take him first overall. (One other option could be they trade down and take one of the other QBs and still move on from Fields, but this just shows again how detailed Poles and his staff need to be).
If the Chicago Bears take a quarterback first overall, they are resetting the rookie QB clock. This means from a financial standpoint, Poles can put money in other places instead of allocating $40 million+ to Justin Fields. That's important, but it also means they don't have any extra draft capital to work with either this year, next year, or even the year after that. Now, they have to look at only using their own pick and that could again be on a LT, TE, EDGE or maybe even a FS should they let Eddie Jackson go.
The Bears don't have a second-round pick now that they traded it to the Commanders for Montez Sweat. I don't think Poles is concerned about that though as Sweat is dominating. Give me Sweat over any mid-level first-round prospect this year.
A quick recap
If the Chicago Bears keep Justin Fields, they have the potential to walk away with:
Justin Fields
Marvin Harrison, Jr. or Joe Alt
2025 1st-Round Pick
2026 1st-Round Pick
Any extra fluff (veterans or additional draft picks) Poles can negotiate
If the Chicago Bears move on and take a quarterback first overall, they will walk away with:
Caleb Williams
Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze or Brock Bowers
A rookie QB contract
Draft capital from trading Justin Fields
As you can see, it's not just about Fields vs. Williams. The Chicago Bears need to dig deep and make sure they don't screw this offseason up. If they choose wrong, Poles' career could be on the verge of being over much sooner than I think he anticipa