The Chicago Bears need to make a decision about the quarterback position very soon. If the Bears end up with the first pick in the draft thanks to the Panthers, will Ryan Poles move on from Justin Fields for Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or a different quarterback? Or will Poles keep Fields and trade the top pick for a haul? We might have to wait a few months to figure that one out, but Fields is already in the crosshairs. When asked what he has shown the Bears, his response was — "improvement." Is he right? If so, just how much improvement has he shown?
If we look at Justin Fields' general stats over his first three years in the NFL, he isn't wrong. Fields has shown improvement from his first year to his second year and even from his second year to this year.
Has Justin Fields improved year over year?#DaBears pic.twitter.com/zOIC1y3zMG
— Rob Schwarz Jr. (@ChiRuxinBGO) December 23, 2023
There is no doubt he's shown improvement. Some could even say he's developing. However, we live in an NFL where developing a quarterback doesn't seem to always happen. This is why we see more quarterbacks succeed who are taken somewhat later in the draft. Patrick Mahomes likely wouldn't succeed in the same ways he has in Kansas City if the Chicago Bears took him over Mitch Trubisky. Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, and Dak Prescott — the list goes on — are all better today because they were drafted by better teams than you usually see picking players in the top 5 or 10 of the draft each year.
Just how much has Justin Fields improved with the Chicago Bears?
Fields has improved in his completion percentage. His passing yards have jumped by nearly 50 yards per game. His touchdown rate came down a bit this season, but his interception rate has also improved. To be fair, his eight interceptions should be six. He had two last week versus the Browns and the first one shouldn't have been called an interception — it hit the ground. The other one was after a Darnell Mooney drop. Dropped and tipped interceptions happen to all quarterbacks, but both of these were on desperation Hail Mary throws. Not to mention another no-call on a late hit on the first one.
Even with all of this improvement, he's also taken a dip in areas. For example, his rushing ability has dropped drastically this year. Defenses are scheming against his legs and his rushing yards per game have gone from 35 to 76.2 and back down to 48.8. He had two touchdowns in his rookie year, eight last season, and only two at this point this year. His longest run this year is 29 yards, yet his longest last season was 67.
He has also lost more fumbles this year. In his rookie year, Fields had 12 fumbles and lost five of them. Last season he had 16 fumbles, but only lost two. To date, Fields has nine fumbles this year and has lost four of them. I expect a dual-threat quarterback to have more fumbles than a traditional running back, and the total numbers people use when discussing his fumbles do not paint a complete picture. That said, he has to find a way to take better care of the football when on the move or attempting to extend the play within the pocket.
Speaking of extending plays. Fields has struggled with holding onto the ball for too long. Whether this is a product of his struggling to read a play correctly, work through his progressions quickly enough, or play hero ball and try to do too much, Fields' inability to get rid of the football has led to a high sack rate each season. In his rookie year, Fields' sack rate was 10.6%. That ballooned up to 14.7% last year. He's brought it down to 11.8% currently.
A positive to note though, is his ability to throw the football away now. Last season he only threw it away 16 times in 15 games. He's already thrown it away 24 times in 10 games this year. Also, his "percentage of pressures turned into sacks" rate (P2S%) has improved. In his rookie season, he had a rate of 23.8%. That jumped up to 27.1% last year, but he has it down to 18.9% this year. That's still a little too high though. For comparison, Patrick Mahomes' rate is averaged at 11.0% for his career. Josh Allen's rate is 13.4% for his career. That said, Aaron Rodgers has a 20.6 P2S% for his career.
According to Pro Football Focus, Justin Fields has also brought his "turnover-worthy play" rate (TWP%) down. In his rookie year, he had a 3.7% TWP% rate. That jumped to 4.4% last year but has been brought down to his best yet at 3.2%. Again, for comparison, Aaron Rodgers has a 2.2 TWP% over his career. Mahomes is at 2.8% for his career, while Josh Allen is at 3.7% — however, his 2023 TWP% is only 2.4%.
The point is that Justin Fields has shown improvement in many areas. The problem is, has the improvement been enough for Ryan Poles to ignore the fact he could end up with the top pick in the NFL Draft once again? This time though, the top two quarterback prospects are much better prospects this year than they were in 2023. Even so, C.J. Stroud (my top QB in last year's draft) has exploded on the scene this year. Can Poles really stick with Fields again despite the improvement not being drastic, or will he move on and reset the QB rookie contract with a player of his choosing?