Why Chicago Bears cannot afford to draft Bijan Robinson
The argument about how good Bijan Robinson is has been talked to death, but it is not factored in enough from a salary cap standpoint. The rookie wage scale allows teams to have players at much cheaper deals than their veteran counterparts. It sets up a window where you can find value against the salary cap. This is why teams value higher-paid positions early in the draft because the difference in savings is more important.
Chicago Bears should not draft Bijan Robinson
Think of it this way, the franchise tag is set based on an average of the top five salaries at a certain position. Let's compare Bijan Robinson to an edge rusher, a tackle, and a 3-technique. The franchise tag or the average of the top salaries at running back is $10M. At tackle, it is $18M. For the interior defensive line, it is slightly more than tackle, and edge rusher is close to $20M.
Every rookie will make a salary based on their draft slot, so we already know the basic parameters from the number nine overall pick. The cap hit will be about $4M next year. For Bijan Robinson that is about 40% of the franchise tag, but for Paris Johnson that is closer to 21%. The margin of value is so much wider if Johnson pays off.
The reality is that a top-five edge rusher is twice as valuable as a top-five running back, and the NFL is telling us that. Tackles and interior defensive linemen are about 80% more valuable than running backs.
Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs were franchise tagged and got a $10M deal. That is about what Andre Dillard got in free agency. That is similar money to B.J. Hill and Samson Ebukam. So, if Bijan Robinson is the best player in his position, his value is about that of an average tackle, edge rusher, or defensive lineman.
So, if Paris Johnson is even average, his value being a left tackle will be greater than Robinson, even if Robinson is arguably the best at his position. The money says that Johnson would make more as long as he is not Andre Dillard, who barely even played.
When you factor in that the Chicago Bears need a tackle more than a running back, the difference between Bijan Robinson and the next player available has to be huge. Then, you look at the salary and realize he has to be twice as good if not more than a starting tackle for this not to be a bad use of resources.
Running backs struggle without good tackles, but bad running backs really do not impact good tackles. Beyond that, it is harder to find human beings who are 6'5" and 300 pounds. If a team has no other needs, and they are in a great cap spot, they can deal with a first-round running back. The Chicago Bears cannot pass up on getting a tackle, and him being so much cheaper than guys like Andre Dillard and George Fant for the next five seasons.