If you missed Dan Orlovsky's NFC North wide receiver rankings, then you missed him putting the Green Bay Packers in the top spot. I had a big issue with that and re-ranked them the way they should have been ranked and backed it up with stats.
Now, we are seeing the Ringer come out even hotter than Orlovsky. The Ringer ranked every team's offense in the NFL from 32 to 1. Guess who is on top again? The Green Bay Packers. How? Why?
Unlike Orlovsky who gave little to no reason why he put the Packers on top of the NFC North, the Ringer at least put this in article form with reasoning. The problem is, their reasoning is not good enough.
The main focus for the Packers is how the team ranked in Offensive DVOA over the last five years. They were first in 2020 and second in 2021. The team dropped to 12th in 2022 and last year they finished 6th. As a Matt LaFleur fan before he went to Green Bay (I wanted him over Matt Nagy), I believe he is playing a big part in the offense's success. The Ringer spoke highly of LaFleur, but they seem more interested in Jordan Love being the main reason.
"The reasons to be bullish on this specific Packers offense are obvious. Love looks like he’s special. The critics will say he was good for only half a season in 2023, but if we include every game, including the playoffs, Love ranked third in expected points added per pass play."
The problem is that the success the Packers' saw last year really isn't sustainable. Over the back half of the year in 2023, Jordan Love ranked 1st in EPA per attempt, 1st in TD/INT ratio, and 2nd in success rate. These were big reasons why Love became the highest-paid quarterback this offseason. The chances of Jordan Love repeating this type of production are slim.
First of all, teams will now have more tape on Love and should be able to expose him more easily this season. Love also appeared to find some luck last season. He finished the year with the sixth-highest bad throw percentage and ranked 12th in on target %. All of this while facing an average of the 23rd-ranked passing defenses in six of the last 8 games.
Now throw in the fact that they lost Jon Runyan to free agency and swapped Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs in free agency and you have more cause for concern. Jacobs isn't a bad running back, but he is also the type of back who isn't very efficient. His career rush per attempt is only 4.2 yards compared to Aaron Jones who has averaged 5.0 yards per carry.
I am not going to try and convince you that the Packers will have a bad offense. I just cannot sit here and agree they finish in the top spot. I see them as a top 10 unit at best. Where do you predict the Packers' offense finishes in 2024?