Chicago Bears fantasy football: 3 concerning stats for Khalil Herbert

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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Khalil Herbert was a big play waiting to happen for the Chicago Bears last season. He had 129 rush attempts for 731 yards last season, an impressive 5.7 yards per attempt rate. If you extrapolate that out the Bears have a serious threat at running back. After David Montgomery left for the Detroit Lions in NFL free agency there was a chance for Herbert to be that guy.

However, free agency and the NFL draft have not gone his way. You can make the case that the running backs that the Chicago Bears added could be more complimentary to Herbert, and they will not replace him. At the same time, you could argue that he will be in a similar, if not worse spot than the year before.

3. D'onta Foreman moves the chains more than Khalil Herbert

Despite the fact that Herbert was explosive and was leading the NFL in yards per attempt, D'onta Foeman was quietly one of the more efficient running backs in the NFL as well. Herbert was 10th in the NFL in rushing yards over expected, which factors in what an average running back would get on each rush attempt. Meanwhile, Foreman was not far behind at 12th.

One difference can be because Herbert had 129 rushes, while Foreman had 207. Foreman was asked to hold the load and take what was given more while Herbert had a specific role to be the big-play back, and that meant searching for that big play.

This can show in their success rate. Last season Foreman had a 50% success rate, while Herbert was at 47%. Foreman was leaning forward for a small gain a bit more, while Herbert would take a loss looking for the big play more. Foreman also saw 22.2% of his runs go for a first down while Herbert was at 20.2%.

That is fine, but the team will never consistently give the ball to Herbert, and they may have specifically in the role as a change-up. The issue is that no pitcher lives and dies throwing the change up. Herbert was in on about 1/3 of the carries, and whether it is Foreman, or he is unseated by Roschon Johnson, the fear is that Foreman and Johnson are competing for 66%, while Herbert will always have his role as 33% of the work.