As we go into the start of the 2023 season, we will look at each player's expectations. While the stats are only a minor part of the evaluation for Justin Fields, and more areas of improvement need to be seen, the Chicago Bears quarterback does appear to be in a spot where he could have his best season.
Mike Clay of ESPN does the fantasy football projections for the site, and he is generally known as one of the more accurate projectionists. We will look at what he thinks will happen with Justin Fields and then bet over or under.
5. Over or under 439 attempts with a 64% completion rate for Justin Fields in 2023
This is a bit shot up in both for Justin Fields. Fields had 318 attempts last season and completed 60.4% of his passes. Even in attempts per game, this is a jump from 21 to 29. The thought is that the Chicago Bears have more passing weapons, so they have to lean more pass-happy. The defense still is not great, so shootouts may ensue.
That may be the case, but at the same time, the Chicago Bears know they are a run-heavy team. In adding Nate Davis, they added a serious run-blocking threat, and they also added three new running backs to work with Justin Fields. Even when they trailed last season, they leaned toward the run, and they may be leading in more games this year, which have them rushing the football.
For attempts, we will go under. The completion rate jumped from 58.9% to 60.4% last year, but this year Mike Clay is seeing a 4% jump from that. Time will tell if it jumps that high.
On the one hand, he has much better and more consistent pass catchers. On the other, he may never have the highest completion rate because the number of times she throws the ball downfield is so high. He is not checking the ball down to improve his completion rate.
His yards per attempt may go up, but his completion rate may not. On the flip side, DJ Moore was one of the best in the NFL at hauling in the deep. An improvement is warranted, but if 63.9% is a 3.5% jump from last year and is still the under, this is enough to bet under on both.
Under 64% completion rate, under 439 attempts