2. The Chicago Bears will pass more on early downs
The Chicago Bears are likely to pass more with Shane Waldron overall. The Seahawks ranked 9th in pass rate over expected on all snaps with a 1.76% rate. The Chicago Bears ranked 30th, with a rate of 4.48%.
This appears to work, especially on early downs. The Seahawks pass the ball 7.24% over expected on early downs, an even higher rate than their overall metrics. Meanwhile, the Bears are at -0.49 on early downs, a lower rate than average.
The Seahawks rank 4th in expected points added when passing on early downs, and the Bears 25th. Seattle comes out firing, and they increase their chances on the later downs. The Bears run early and are forced to pass late.
It will be interesting to see if these are Getsy vs. Waldron stats or Justin Fields vs. a rookie quarterback. The Bears likely played from a shotgun and ran so much to suit the skill set of Justin Fields.
Waldron is bringing a pass-heavy, under-center game plan, and that may not fit this style of quarterback. Is Justin Fields not going to be a fit in a Shane Waldron offense?