Projecting an extension for Chicago Bears WR Chase Claypool
The Chicago Bears will have to make a tough decision when it comes to Chase Claypool and his contract this offseason. On one side, they could try to sign him now before his value may go up. Because, if they wait for the end of this season they could see Claypool price himself out of Chicago, and play his best days elsewhere.
Projecting an extension for Chicago Bears WR Chase Claypool
At the same time, if they pay him after trading a pick and he flops both seasons, it looks like a disaster. So, the two sides may not come together this offseason. However, if the Chicago Bears did approach Chase Claypool, what would he be looking for as his market value?
Some of the names who have signed contracts recently are Corey Davis, Jakobi Meyers, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, and Allen Lazard. Below you can see how they compare to Chase Claypool. We are using a per-game metric to cut out for games missed, and these stats are since Claypool entered the NFL in 2020.
Name | Catches/G | Yards/G | TD/G |
|---|---|---|---|
Corey Davis | 3.6 | 55.9 | 0.3 |
Jakobi Meyers | 4.6 | 53.3 | 0.2 |
Courtland Sutton | 3.8 | 50.6 | 0.1 |
Chase Claypool | 3.6 | 47.5 | 0.3 |
Michael Gallup | 3.4 | 43.9 | 0.3 |
Allen Lazard | 3.3 | 43.8 | 0.4 |
The big issue is that while some of these players did drop from the last three seasons to just 2022, Claypool has to fight the idea that his play has been dropping in the past two seasons. When you compare his three-year average to his average just this season, you see a big drop. He goes from right in the conversation with these guys to only in the conversation with Michael Gallup. who was coming off of an injury. Corey Davis saw his stats drop, and although they did not fall as much, the Jets are rumored to be looking to move off of his contract already.
Name | Catches/G | Yards/G | TD/G |
|---|---|---|---|
Corey Davis | 2.5 | 41.2 | 0.2 |
Jakobi Meyers | 4.8 | 57.4 | 0.4 |
Courtland Sutton | 4.3 | 55.3 | 0.1 |
Chase Claypool | 3.1 | 30.1 | 0.1 |
Michael Gallup | 2.8 | 30.3 | 0.3 |
Allen Lazard | 4 | 52.5 | 0.4 |
The gap between his 2022 and his three-year career averages is going to cause this season to be a make-or-break for Chase Claypool. At his career rate, he would be right in between all those names in salary, but now, he may be on the low end.
Below you can see the length, average annual value, and guaranteed money that each player signed for.
Name | Years | AAV | GTD |
|---|---|---|---|
Jakobi Meyers | 3 | $11M | $21M |
Courtland Sutton | 4 | $15.2M | $34.9M |
Corey Davis | 3 | $12.5M | $27M |
Michael Gallup | 5 | $11.5M | $27M |
Allen Lazard | 4 | $11M | $22M |
Average | 3.8 | $12.24 | $26.4M |
The range of salaries here is pretty consistent. Even with Courtland Sutton propping it up, it is hard to see Chase Claypool getting an offer for $13M or more, at least not until after a strong season in 2023.
At the same time, a lot of these players will be a ceiling even if he just has a decent season next year. He will need to keep up with all of them to stay within this salary range because right now he is projected for closer to $10M per year.
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In an earlier post, we highlighted Cole Kmet and suggested a three-year, $30M deal with $18M guaranteed. Would Chicago Bears fans rather have Kmet on that deal, or Chase Claypool on perhaps the exact same deal?