Khalil Herbert's projected production as Chicago Bears RB1

The Chicago Bears rushing attack is going to look a lot different next season, especially after the announcement that runningback David Montgomery will be joining the division-rival Detroit Lions on a three-year deal. Despite the fact that a number of talented backs are available in both free agency and the NFL Draft, it appears that the team already has Montgomery's replacement on their roster in third-year back Khalil Herbert.

Khalil Herbert Performed Well in Two Seasons as Chicago Bears Backup

After being selected in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, the Virginia Tech product had a relatively pedestrian rookie season. Despite playing in all 17 contests as a rookie, Herbert only recorded 529 total yards and two touchdowns on 117 total touches. However, Herbert took a great step forward after his rookie season and now appears to be on the cusp of being the Bears' number one running back.

Last season, Herbert ranked second amongst all NFL running backs in yards per carry at 5.67 despite being the third-leading rusher on the Bears. With only 138 total touches through 13 games, Herbert contributed 788 yards and five touchdowns despite only starting one game in 2022. Considering the fact that both Montgomery and Justin Fields recorded more carries last season than Herbert, it appears that an increased role would only improve these numbers in 2023.

Herbert's increase in production from his rookie to sophomore seasons shows a lot of promise in terms of his development, but what will his numbers look like as the lead back of the Chicago Bears? Well, just as Herbert joined the team during Montgomery's third season with the Bears in 2021, Herbert now finds himself as potentially the team's lead back heading into his own third season as a pro. Especially if the team drafts a young back late in the draft (like they did with Herbert), it makes some sense that Herbert's total touches will look similar to Montgomery's total touches in 2021.

Predicting Khalil Herbert's Stats in 2023 as RB1 with Chicago Bears

In 2021, Montgomery recorded 225 rushes and 42 receptions in just 13 games. Using those numbers, and Herbert's career averages of 5.0 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception, that would put his projected total yards in 2023 at around 1,840 total yards over a full 17-game season.

Obviously, this is not an extremely accurate prediction, as the offensive gameplan with new receivers and a more developed Justin Fields may look extremely different in 2023 compared to 2021, but nonetheless, it is nice to see how productive Herbert could be with the touches of a number one back.

Herbert's projected total yardage for 2023 would have ranked fourth across the NFL in 2022, behind only Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffrey. Given the fact that this data is extrapolated from completely independent events, this should certainly not be the expectation for Herbert heading into just his third professional season, but nonetheless, it shows the upper end of Herbert's potential in an offense that caters more specifically to his skillsets.

While there are many reasons why Herbert might not reach this projected number next season (a bigger focus on the passing game, relatively less success as a lead back, etc.), Herbert's role as the teams lead back might be more heavily relied upon than we saw in recent seasons with Montgomery. With both Justin Fields and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy indicating a more reduced rushing role for the quarterback next season, Herbert may garner even more carries than Montgomery did in either season next to Fields.

Almost any way you analyze the numbers, it is nearly impossible to forecast how much Herbert will be utilized next season and what his stats will look like. However, given the young player's recent improvement from season to season, as well as a dramatic increase in projected touches for 2023, the Chicago Bears and fans alike should feel great about handing the lead-back role over to Herbert.