Khalil Herbert is a good fantasy football start vs Green Bay Packers
If you are looking for a strong bet to fill your fantasy football lineup, a sleeper who is not expensive in DFS and may be able to fit into your FLEX in managed leagues is Khalil Herbert. The Chicago Bears running back has a strong chance for a huge day.
Start Khalil Herbert in fantasy football week one against the Green Bay Packers
To start, Khalil Herbert has not gotten a lot of chances to be the lead man, but when he has, it has worked out. He has only had seven career games with more than 15 carries. He has averaged 14.2 points per game in those games, with two five games over 10 points, three games over 15 points, and one game over 20 points.
In those seven games, he has averaged 96.7 yards per game, with two games over 100 and a low 72 yards.
The reality is that Herbert is going to 15 carries this week. Roschon Johnson has climbed the depth chart, but he will slowly be worked in and will only account for a carry or two in his debut. D'onta Foreman was expected to split time with Herbert, but the preseason usage has said that Herbert will carry the majority of the work, and Foreman will only come in to spell him occasionally.
Beyond that, Herbert averages just 0.8 catches and 5.1 yards per game in his career. Then, he ripped off a 56-yard receiving touchdown in the preseason this year. If this is a sign of what is to come with his new usage, it may mean that Herbert is about to take on a much bigger role and enter a new tier of fantasy player.
Herbert scores well when he gets 15 carries, and he may even add pass-catching upside. Even more intriguing is the idea that he gets the Green Bay Packers.
Last season they ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game, and also ranked 31st in the NFL in DVOA versus the run, 31st in rush EPA/play, and 31st in run success rate. Their run defense is flat-out bad.
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Rashan Gary is back, and they drafted Lukas VanNess, but VanNess is just a rotational player as of now, and Gary is still fresh off an ACL injury last season. Beyond that, most of the same characters and coaches return from this run defense. The Chicago Bears will focus on testing the run defense early, and that could mean a lot of Khalil Herbert in week one.
Use him in your fantasy football lineups.