The Chicago Bears are sitting at 3-7. In this season, they are 1-5 when Justin Fields starts and 2-2 when Tyson Bagent is the signal caller. However, it is clear that Fields brings the offense more when he is out there, and the team will certainly go back to him when he gets healthy. What are the big differences, aside from the record?
3. Tyson Bagent gets the ball out quicker than Justin Fields for the Chicago Bears, but Justin Fields creates more in the quick game
There is no denying that Tyson Bagent can run the offense that Luke Getsy wants a bit better than Justin Fields. It is clear by how much quicker he gets the ball out into the hands of his playmakers.
Bagent averages 2.91 seconds per pass, per PFF. Meanwhile, Justin Fields is at 3.23. 43.4% of the time, Bagent throws the ball; it comes out in 2.5 seconds or less. That is just 32.4% of the time for Fields.
However, even when Fields gets the ball out quickly, he is still showing more control of the offense. Fields average 7.5 yards per attempt under 2.5 seconds, while Bagent is at 6.4. Fields has six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the quick game, while Bagent is at zero touchdowns and two picks when throwing it quickly.
Fields has a 4.9% big-time throw rate and a 3% turnover-worthy play rate in these areas. On the flip side, Bagent is at 1.5% big-time throws and 5.8% turnover-worthy plays.
Justin Fields averages 10.1 yards per attempt and has a big-time throw rate of 3.8 with a turnover-worthy throw rate of 2.1% when he holds the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer. On the flip side, Bagent throws 1.2% in big-time throws and 7.3% in turnover-worthy plays when he holds the ball longer.
If Justin Fields can get the ball out a little faster, it would be great, but he can do things with his arm that Tyson Bagent simply cannot. Getting the ball out faster does not lead to more success, as shown by Fields being better in all areas.
2. Tyson Bagent avoids sacks for the Chicago Bears but turns it over more
There is one side to the story between Tyson Bagent and Justin Fields that you have surely seen. Bagent has a 3.4% sack rate, one of the lowest in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Justin Fields is consistently one of the worst in this area, and he has a 12.9% sack rate this year. So, Fields is taking a sack on nearly four times as many dropbacks as Bagent.
Fields takes a sack 22.8% of the time when he faces pressure and Bagent takes a sack 9.4% of the time. So, it is not the line playing better, but rather Bagent avoiding sacks.
While that is great, it does not tell the whole story. Bagent has a 4.2% interception rate. Justin Fields' career-high is 3.7%. Bagent also has three fumbles.
When facing pressure, Justin Fields averages five yards per attempt, while Bagent is at 3.6 yards per attempt. Fields has a 3.8% turnover-worthy throw rate under pressure, while Bagent is at 6.9%. Still, even in a clean pocket, Fields has a 1% turnover-worthy throw rate, while Bagent is at 6.5%
So, Fields is taking a sack four times more often, and Bagent is throwing the ball into harm's way about six times more often. It is a pick your poison for these two.
1. Justin Fields brings the Chicago Bears more explosive passing.
An obvious difference between Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent is how often they push the ball down the field and the type of success that they have when that happens. Fields has an average depth of target of 8.4 yards down the field, and Tyson Bagent is at 6.5.
Fields has 16% of his attempts go 20 yards down the field, while Bagent only has 8%. The reason Bagent does not attempt them is because he struggles here. He is competing at 25% compared to Fields at 50%.
Fields is averaging 12.8 yards per attempt on these throws, while Bagent is at 6.9 yards per attempt. Even in the intermediate, Justin Fields averages 8.9 yards per attempt, to 7.1 for Bagent. Bagent has a 25% turnover-worthy pass rate when throwing between 10 and 20 yards, while Fields is at 4.5%.
The big area where Bagent has Fields is screens and passes behind the line. Bagent has 24% of those attempts, while Fields is at 17.3%.
Bagent averages 4.9 yards per attempt, and Fields is at 4.5. If it were not for these passes, there would be less talk about the sacks and getting the ball out quickly.
Justin Fields holds the ball longer but creates more plays. He takes more sacks but avoids more turnovers. Fields gives the offense depth down the field that they have not had with Bagent. This is why they are going back with such an obvious decision.