3 matchups the Chicago Bears win against the Minnesota Vikings in week 12

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When the Chicago Bears head to the Minnesota Vikings they will only be small underdogs, despite being three games back in the win column. The Bears are getting healthier at the right times, and the Vikings remain banged up. Are there some matchups that the Bears can win this week?

3. Will the Chicago Bears be able to run on the Minnesota Vikings?

The Minnesota Vikings defense has been one of the more impressive stories of the season. They do not have the personnel to be good, but Brian Flores has turned this unit around quickly, which has sparked their hot run. 

This comes from a run defense that is much better statistically than it looks like from a name-value perspective. Former Bears Jonathan Bullard and Khyris Tonga get plenty of snaps on the group up front. 

The Vikings rank 6th in expected points allowed per rush attempt on the ground. However, they do rank 19th in success rate. This shows that they show up in big moments as a run defense, but down-to-down, they can be beaten. 

This is good because the Bears could be the rushing attack to beat them. They currently rank 7th in EPA per rush and 7th in success rate. That is despite a lot of moving pieces up front, and at quarterback.

The Vikings have had a solid run defense, but some of that comes down to their opponents. They have only faced three teams with a top-ten rushing attack based on EPA per play. They have also faced five teams that are in the bottom ten. 

When they faced the Chicago Bears, the team lost Nate Davis and Justin Fields during the game. When they faced the 49ers, the team was without Trent Williams, their best player. Then, they faced the Eagles, the only other strong rushing attack, and Philadelphia had 48 rushes for 259 yards while scoring 34 points in a win.

The Bears will not do quite that, but they should be able to expose the run defense more than they did in the previous matchup. The Bears have faced three top-ten run defenses in EPA and two top-ten defenses in success rate. They have been more battle-tested than Minnesota, and now they are healthier against them. Jordan Hicks, one of the top-run defenders on the Vikings, will be out Monday. Look for the run game to come alive on Monday.