3 matchups that point to the Chicago Bears upsetting the Detroit Lions

The Chicago Bears are heavy underdogs against the Detroit Lions. However, there are reasons to believe that the team can compete. They are getting healthier across the board at the right time, and we could see how good this team was supposed to be. Also, there are some matchups where the team could have an advantage.

3. Are the Chicago Bears able to run on the Detroit Lions?

If there has been one thing to note positively about the Chicago Bears offense it is that it has consistently been able to run the ball. They always have a good ground game because of Justin Fields, but the addition of Teven Jenkins in his absence has kept them moving on the ground. 

Chicago ranks sixth in expected points added per rush and sixth in success rate when rushing. Detroit's defense ranks 12th in EPA and 15th in success rate, so they have a decent run defense. However, that number may be inflated by who they have played.

The Chargers, Raiders, Buccaneers, Panthers, Packers, Falcons, and Chiefs all rank below 20th in EPA per play as rushing attacks. These units are all below 17th in rushing success rate. 

They have faced two rushing attacks with a high EPA per play. The Ravens, who scored 38 against Detroit, and the Seahawks, who scored 37 against Detroit. 

Seattle ranks sixth in EPA per play but 20th in success rate because of the boom/bust ability of Ken Walker. The Ravens are the best in EPA and third in rushing. So, the Bears rushing offense will be the second toughest the Lions have faced all season. On paper, the run defense is not that great, so maybe the stats are not telling the full story. Maybe the Bears have serious success on the ground.