Projecting a Jaylon Johnson extension with the Chicago Bears
One of the big discussion points for the Chicago Bears as they head into training camp will be Jaylon Johnson, and what the team should do with his contract. He is going to be a free agent this offseason, and while the team has been drafting cornerbacks, they still need that position in bunches, and Johnson is potentially too good to just let walk in free agency.
Projecting a Jaylon Johnson extension with the Chicago Bears
However, Johnson has not shown to be an elite number-one corner. He plays just one side, he struggles against choice rights and does not play in the slot. Also, he is allowing 1.89 yards per coverage snap in man coverage, and 0.91 in zone, showing that is much better in a specific scheme.
He is a lower-end number or a strong number two depending on roster construction. So, can the Chicago Bears and Jaylon Johnson meet in the middle? When looking at the top cornerback salaries, you see guys such as Jaire Alexander, Marshon Lattimore, and Marlon Humphrey. They are the corners who do follow guys, and play both man and zone coverage.
However, the tier below them could give us a look into a contract for Jaylon Johnson. Recent contracts below those big names include Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Charvarius Ward, Cam Sutton, DJ Reed, and JC Jackson. Their contract details are below.
Years | AAV | GTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
Jamel Dean | 4 | $13 | $24.5 |
Carlton Davis | 3 | $14.8 | $30 |
Charvarius Ward | 3 | $13.5 | $26.6 |
Cam Sutton | 3 | $11 | $22.5 |
DJ Reed | 3 | $11 | $10.5 |
JC Jackson | 5 | $16.5 | $40 |
So, the range that the Chicago Bears may be looking to is the $11-$16M range in per year value. Which side does he lean to? Below you can see how each cornerback compares in yards per snap, touchdowns per target, interceptions per target, pass breakups per target, penalties per snap, and run stops per snap.
Yards/Snap | TD/Target | INT/Target | PBU/Target | Pen/Snap | Run Stop/Snap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaylon Johnson | 1.12 | 6.32% | 0.53% | 14.21% | 1.08% | 3.57% |
Jamel Dean | 0.78 | 4.91% | 2.46% | 9.82% | 0.72% | 6.84% |
Carlton Davis | 1.09 | 5.87% | 1.58% | 13.32% | 1.42% | 6.03% |
Chavarius Ward | 0.95 | 3.57% | 1.28% | 10.2% | 1.28% | 4.86% |
Cam Sutton | 0.9 | 5.9% | 2.95% | 8.49% | 0.32% | 5.16% |
DJ Reed | 0.75 | 3.39% | 2.12% | 9.75% | 0.61% | 6.18% |
JC Jackson | 1.14 | 4.19% | 7.49% | 8.68% | 1.16% | 3.8% |
These rates turn out a little disappointing for Jaylon Johnson. First, he is one of the worst in yards per snap, better than only JC Jackson. Jackson saw his yards per snap rise significantly in limited time last season, struggling right after this deal.
Beyond that, he is giving up more touchdowns and picking off fewer passes. Perhaps something that Matt Eberflus will circle is that he is not the run defender that others are. He is average at penalties.
Also, he is the best at breaking up passes. This is surprising considering the interception numbers are so low, but he is able to get his hands on a lot of footballs. This presents an upside argument.
We all know that he was not helped by the pass rush last season, and we are seeing that he is close to interceptions, but not getting them. With an extra tenth of a second or so, those could become picks, and the yards allowed could turn into more pass breakups.
However, the Chicago Bears have to decide on a contract, or at least present one now, if they want to keep him. From what these stats show, that number has to be closer to $11M per year. From Johnson's standpoint, Sutton got $11M per year this offseason, so anything he gets should be a slight tick-up from that.
5 Bears unlikely to be back in 2024. dark. Next
Would a three-year $36M deal with $24M guaranteed work for both sides? Or, do both sides want to see this season play out first?