Projecting Montez Sweat's sack total during the 2024 Chicago Bears season

Montez Sweat is coming off of a breakout season with 12.5 sacks. He somehow led both the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders in sacks last season. While some fans will think that this is just the beginning of Sweat dominating for the Bears, others will say that the NFL comes with ups and downs and what is up will usually come back to the mean. So, what are realistic expectations for Sweat?

What are realistic expectations for Montez Sweat's first full season with Chicago Bears?

Since 2010, there have been 20 players to record more than 10 sacks at age 27. In their age 28 season, we saw a large variety of outcomes. Nine of those players recorded more than ten sacks with seven being above 12, and the leader being at 16. 

However, there were some lows as well, with five players failing to get to six sacks. Some of that is injury-related, but not entirely. Overall, the 20 players averaged 8.9 sacks per year after they recorded 10 sacks in their age-17 season. 

That makes sense because five of those players had eight or 8.5 sacks in that season, which is also a firm medium. 

This is a fair expectation for Sweat. We have to remember that even if Sweat plays better, sometimes the sacks do not come. He could set up sacks for others, or in some cases, his pressures could lead to throwaways and interceptions, which impact the game as well, if not more. So, Sweat can record nine sacks next year, and improve upon his play. 

However, it is a fair point of caution to note that he may not improve his play. He was playing for a contract with Washington and then playing to prove his worth after being traded from them. Sweat averages 8.3 sacks per year, including his stats last season, so the odds of him hitting around eight sacks are higher than some fans may think. 

Setting the bar at eight is fair, and makes for a real chance that he can exceed expectations.