The Chicago Bears won an impressive game against the Las Vegas Raiders, but this was always a game that they had a great chance to win, and we expected the team to have an upset possibility, considering they were playing Brian Hoyer. The Bears now sit at 2-5, so there are plenty of questions, even after a win. What do fans need to know?
10. Is the Chicago Bears defense really getting better?
The Chicago Bears are 2-1 in their last three games, and a turnover that led to a touchdown was the difference in their one loss. There is no way to deny that the defense has improved in the last three weeks. According to RBSDM, the Bears ranked 28th in expected points allowed per play through four weeks. That number was 0.076. It is down to -.121, and the Bears are 7th in this metric since week five.
They went from 29th in passing EPA to 14th, and they went from 14th in rushing EPA to 2nd. The question is whether or not this is real. We are seeing that a lot of teams can sack Sam Howell, while the Minnesota Vikings were without Justin Jefferson, and the Las Vegas Raiders played Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Beyond that, which of those rushing attacks have been strong this year? Is the defense better, or did they get to the soft part of their schedule?
It is probably a combination of the defense improved, and the schedule eased up. The Chargers rank 6th in EPA per play, while the Commanders ran 22nd, the Vikings are 19th, and the Raiders are 23rd. Needless to say, this will be a test worth watching.
9. Will the Chicago Bears keep rolling with D'onta Foreman?
It has only been two games, but D'onta Foreman has been the Chicago Bears' best runner between the tackles. Khalil Herbert averages 5.3 yards per attempt, but his success rate is 51%, as he is more hit or miss. Foreman is averaging an impressive 4.7 yards per attempt, and that is with a success rate of 63.9%.
So, Herbert has a few more big runs, but down-to-down Foreman keeps the offense on schedule. Herbert will not return for at least two more weeks, but Roschon Johnson will be back this week. What does his role look like next to Foreman?
They made Foreman inactive in favor of Johnson, but Johnson has a 48% success rate and has missed a few weeks with a concussion. The most likely thought is Foreman will assume the snaps that Herbert would have while Johnson goes back to being the passing down back. The team will have to make a decision to keep Darrynton Evans or Travis as their third back because both will lose their role to Johnson before Foreman.
8. Can the Chicago Bears give Gervon Dexter more run defense snaps?
The Chicago Bears have been using Gervon Dexter in an interesting manner. His snap rates fluctuate every single week rather than consistently increase. However, there is a pretty clear understanding of how they want to use him. Dexter has played 168 snaps. He has rushed the passer 110 and dropped into coverage once while he has defended the run just 57 times.
That means that when Dexter is on the field, there is a 66.1% chance that the opposing team is passing the football. As we showed, the run defense is better than the pass defense, so teams will pass on them. Still, that is no coincidence. Dexter has played the most in the Bears wins, and in the Bears wins, they led almost the entire game, so the opposition was in obvious pass situations.
In the last three weeks, the difference is more defined. He has 12 run defense snaps and 64 snaps on passing plays. Do the Chicago Bears not trust him against the run? The run defense has been good, but you would also like to see them work Dexter in a little more.
7. What was the difference at quarterback for the Chicago Bears?
The Chicago Bears are 1-0 when Tyson Bagen starts and 1-5 when Justin Fields starts. There is going to be a lot of talk about how much better Bagent is than Fields. As someone who predicted Bagent to play well and predicted the Bears to win, this is not the start of a quarterback controversy.
The way that Bagent played was like a steady backup would play. He took care of the ball and got the ball out of his hands to let playmakers do things. Bagent had a 2.87 time to throw. Justin Fields is at 3.32 this season. Bagent also had a 10% pressure-to-sack rate, while Justin Fields borders closer to 25%
Still, Bagent had a 2.5 average depth of target when Justin Fields was at 8.4 this season and 9.5 for his career. The Chicago Bears asked Bagent to manage the game and not screw things up. The Bears ask Justin Fields to win games by being a playmaker. It is different, and you get more boom and bust with Fields. Still, if the Raiders offense did anything to press the Bears offense, we may have seen Bagent fail to make the plays that were needed. It was a good spot start, but it was a good spot regardless, based on the opponent.
6. Did Jaquan Brisker prove that he is now healthy for the Chicago Bears?
There is no way to deny the performance of Jaquan Brisker on Sunday. We had just wondered if injuries were catching up to him this year because his first six games were not close to anything he displayed last year. Then, on Sunday, we saw vintage Jaquan Brisker. Brisker had 11 tackles, and seven were deemed stops, per PFF.
Brisker also gave up four catches but just 13 yards in total. It was easily the best game we had seen from him. He left the first few games with an injury and was close to missing the Commanders game. Still, it looked like he was playing through something in that game, and he struggled against the Vikings as well. Sunday was a different player. It may be the first time we saw him healthy for a game from start to finish this year. If this play continues, the second-year jump is still in play.
5. What will the Chicago Bears do at guard when Nate Davis returns?
The Chicago Bears are doing a disservice to Teven Jenkins right now. Ryan Poles never wanted Jenkins and has moved him around constantly, first from tackle to guard, then from the right side to the left. However, with the injury to Nate Davis, they moved him to right guard. Jenkins played great, which is a good development.
Still, in a week or two, the Bears will get Davis back, and then what? Jenkins will likely move back to left guard. He is playing well, but not elite or anything. You have to think that if he could just stay in one spot for a season, you could actually see him take that step. However, this year will be all about him shuffling back and forth and playing both guard spots.
The Bears' best five right now may have played Sunday, but you wonder if Jenkins should have gotten the chance to develop more on the left side while Ja'Tyre Carter or Cody Whitehair played right guard. These are the same things that held Whitehair back from being a nationally recognized player despite a strong career.
4. Did Jaylon Johnson make a lot of money on Sunday?
In the offseason, we broke down a potential contract for Jaylon Johnson. It was fascinating to compare his stats to other cornerbacks because he looked just as good as them in most areas. Even in pass breakups, Jaylon Johnson was right there with his peers, but interceptions were lacking. He had one his career, well below anyone in the contract range he was hoping to get.
This is why Johnson is not as nationally known and why he entered the year without a deal. For someone who gets their hands on the ball as much as Johnson the interceptions had to come. They came in bunches against the Las Vegas as he picked off two passes, returning one for a touchdown in the Chicago Bears win.
Johnson bumped his career number from one to three in a game. He may be able to corral one or two more when you consider he was due to see this happen. Everything else was there for him to get paid this offseason. If he adds another interception or two, he may leave the Chicago Bears and head to the highest bidder, and that bid may be high.
3. Could Tyler Scott be the Chicago Bears WR2 by the end of the season?
Tyler Scott has had an emergence in the past two weeks. The Chicago Bears traded Chase Claypool, and then Equanimeous St. Brown went to the IR, so the team needed him to slide into the third wide receiver slot.
He went from 33% of the routes in the first five weeks to 65% in the last two weeks. He only has 31 yards over the last two weeks, but it looks like he is on the same page as Tyson Bagent and we may see more.
Scott has 14% of the targets in the past two weeks, while Darnell Mooney has just 12%. Scott has 33% of the air yards, while Mooney has 24% in the last two weeks. Mooney has slightly outproduced Scott, but the underlying metrics show that Scott is a bigger part of the offense. This could be because Tyson Bagent is much more familiar with Scott than any of the other starters who played with Justin Fields.
Still, Mooney will be gone after this year and Scott is just a rookie. The tides may be shifting towards Scott passing up Mooney by the end of the year.
2. What is happening with Cole Kmet in recent weeks?
Through five weeks, it was looking like a career year for Cole Kmet. He was the clear number-two threat behind D.J. Moore and was averaging over 46 yards per game. In the last two games, he is down to nine yards, 4.5 yards per game. That is a significant drop-off.
Some of this is explainable. The Bears are playing more tight ends and showing different looks. More than that, while he spent all summer being the go-to guy for Justin Fields in practice, he is not on the same page as the UDFA Tyson Bagent, who is more comfortable with Tyler Scott as the second option behind D.J. Moore.
Still, it has to do with Kmet as well. He has to get better. As we noted, the Chargers will score more than the Raiders this week, and Bagent cannot just check it down and throw screens. He needs someone reliable a few yards down the field and over the middle. Cole Kmet has to link up with Bagent quickly.
1. Is Tremaine Edmunds actually playing better for the Chicago Bears?
When you look at the stat book, it is easy to think that Tremaine Edmunds finally had a bounce-back game. A bunch of tackles and an interception in a win is just what he needed. Still, the stats are a bit deceiving here. Yannick Ngakoue made an athletic play to deflect a pass, and Edmunds was in the right spot for the interception. He gets credit, but his overall game was not as good.
He allowed four catches and three passes went for first downs. He still was looking slow in coverage and over-pursued a few plays. T.J. Edwards has picked things up in recent weeks, but it still looks like Edmunds is a bit behind.
Can the Chicago Bears get more from him? Was the interception at least a spark in his play? The Bears need him to play better to compete with the LA Chargers next week.