Realistic expectations for Rome Odunze's rookie season with the Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears fans are excited about the possibility of what Rome Odunze can bring to the offense. However, while he is a top-ten pick, and in most years he would have been drafted as the top receiver, we do know that even the best wideouts can take some time in their rookie year. What are realistic expectations for Odunze?

Realistic expectations for Rome Odunze's rookie season with the Chicago Bears

Since 2000, there have been 50 wide receivers drafted within the top 15 picks of the NFL draft. These rookies range from Ja’Marr Chase, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever to John Ross, who was immediately a dud. 

The average stats for these 50 wide receivers came out to 45 receptions for 633 yards and four touchdowns. That is a good thought for where to expect Odunze, but as we noted there were some real duds, mainly due to injury in this list. If we take out Ross, Santana Moss, Jameson Williams, and Mike Williams because they hardly played, the averages go up to 49 catches on 89 targets for 685 yards, and four touchdowns. Not a lot more. 

In fact, even if we take out the top four receivers to even out the distribution the average goes to 45 catches on 84 targets with 619 yards and four touchdowns. This shows us that while there are some high-end outcomes for the rookies, the low-end outcomes are not dragging this average down. This is a firm expectation for what a top-ten pick should do. 

So, while fans want to see a team with three 1,000-yard wide receivers, the reality is that the target competition will lead to Odunze being much closer to average yards as a rookie. If Rome Odunze finished the season with 45-50 catches and over 640 yards, this would be above the average expectation. This is what Chicago Bears fans need to expect.