1. Who wants to trust Matt Eberflus as a favorite
We have established that Matt Eberflus is a good defensive coach, but when it comes to winning football games, he does not do it. His team needs a two-score lead at least to hold onto games when they are not favored, and when they are favored, they rarely do what they are supposed to. To be fair, they are very rarely favored to win with Matt Eberflus.
Since being hired, the Bears have been favored to win just four times. They have not covered a spread with Eberflus as a favorite. In his first year, they beat the Houston Texans by three at home, but they were three-point favorites. Then, they lost to the Detroit Lions at home as favorites.
They opened the year as small favorites over the Green Bay Packers and got whacked. So, they were not favored again until they saw the Carolina Panthers at home. This time, they were 3.5-point favorites, and while they won, they did not cover. So, Eberflus is 2-2 outright when his team is favored, and they are 0-3-1 against the spread. They have two three-point wins. Needless to say, the Chicago Bears laying four points in this spot is starting to feel pretty hefty.
The Chicago Bears have shown that they can fight and scrap and win here and there as underdogs, but they have never shown that they can win by more than a field goal when they are expected to be the better team. Will that change on Sunday?