Is this stat projection fair for Robert Tonyan with the Chicago Bears

What are the projections expecting from Robert Tonyan in 2023?

Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports

What is a fair expectation for Robert Tonyan with the Chicago Bears in 2023? Mike Clay of ESPN makes the fantasy football projections, and he usually can give us a rough idea of what to expect for each player. So, what does he see from Robert Tonyan, and do we think these stats are fair or foul?

Over or Under 14 targets, 12 catches, 98 yards, and one touchdown for Robert Tonyan with the Chicago Bears in 2023

This is an interesting stat line for Robert Tonyan. When the Chicago Bears signed Robert Tonyan, some wondered if this meant anything about the long-term status of Cole Kmet on the roster. However, Clay has Kmet projected for 578 yards, and he has just 98 yards for Tonyan, so it is no contest.

While we do agree that it is not a comparison, we do think that these may be a bit low for Tonyan. When he is healthy, he has gone over this total every year. Heck, even when he played just eight games, he had 29 targets, 18 catches, 204 yards, and two touchdowns.

Yes, on the Green Bay Packers, he was the top tight end, and now he is clearly the number two. Yes, the Bears are more run-heavy, and they just added a lot of wideouts. However, the Bears will pass more this year, and the Packers offense was going through Davante Adams back then.

Again, the stat line we listed was five starts and eight total games. His past two full seasons showed 59 and 67 targets, 52 and 53 catches, 586 and 470 yards, and 13 combined touchdowns. If he even got half of those numbers, he would smash the Mike Clay projection.

That is about the halfway point of his 2021 year which ended in injury. Tonyan is not quite the same player he was, but it is hard to say that he will be healthy for a full year and fail to hit 100 yards.

We noted from these in the past that Clay was optimistic about the pass-catching stats for the Chicago Bears' running backs. Perhaps he needs to take a bit away from the backs and give that to Tonyan. That is a way to increase production work without being overly optimistic about the team. We think closer to 20 catches for 200 is a better projection.

14 targets, 12 catches, 98 yards, and one touchdown