The Chicago Bears are unofficially officially going for the anomaly

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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Comparing #1 draft selections

Caleb Williams will be the quarterback drafted by the Chicago Bears this season. (Thanks for the $50, Keith) I love it when a bet I made back in December pays out. David Kaplan calls it chasing greatness, and I call it the anomaly. Very few rookie quarterbacks have the type of season CJ Stroud had last year. If you don't believe Ryan Poles is attempting that and more, I don't know what to tell you. Caleb Williams is considered a generational talent-ish. No rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl.

I don't think that will change anytime soon. But ideally, Williams will win enough games to keep this organization from getting fired. We have seen this movie before. Maybe the third time is the charm. I should stop saying Williams and say the quarterback or, presumably, you get what I mean, right? I have a hard time thinking the Bears draft Jayden Daniels over Williams due to Daniels's size. I guess one could assume Drake Maye... My bad. The history of the consensus #1 overall drafted quarterbacks is interesting:

  • Joe Burrow, when healthy, is a stud, but can he stay healthy?
  • Trevor Lawrence struggled because of a bad situation but overcame it. He still hasn't gone far yet.
  • Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield have both been good NFL starters but did not take advantage of their rookie contracts to make a big push.
  • Andrew Luck never got an offensive line built for him, but he showed that generational talents are real in my era of football.
  • Cam Newton almost defied the logic of running quarterbacks, but Superman was human, after all.
  • Sam Bradford is... skip.
  • Matthew Stafford might best help us answer the question of what could happen next. Oh yes, he was one of my favorite #1 consensus quarterbacks drafted. Let's talk about that connection.

In normal situations, Matthew Stafford is the type of quarterback that the Chicago Bears or any team dreams about drafting with the #1 overall selection. Stafford and Williams are very comparable draft prospects (talent-wise) when comparing two different eras. Caleb Williams and the Norte Dame game and Stafford vs Florida both left question marks. They both have mobility and arm strength, played hero football, and had questionable defenses. 

  • Stafford 6'2, 225,33" arms, and 10" hands
  • Williams 6'1, 214, 32"arms, and 9 3/4" hands

Had the Chicago Bears held this draft pick as their own, Ryan Poles (had he been around) would have drafted Williams. The issue would have been the surrounding talent. Stafford struggled early in the NFL due to a lack of defense and a running game. Williams, much like Justin Fields, would have, too. I mean, look what happened to Williams in 2023.

It wasn't until 2011 (Stafford's third season) that everybody knew he was going to become a beast. But the Lions weren't good enough to go far. Ryan Poles built his version of the Chicago Bears this offseason and a bit of last year for this moment. To make sure that Williams doesn't have to wait until he is 33 to get a shot. That is the ultimate goal. I said earlier this year that if Poles spends money, a rookie quarterback is coming. The best chance to create an anomaly in the NFL is a quarterback on a rookie deal.