So if the Bears do move on from Fields what are the odds that the QB they draft will be any good?
Taking a look at the QBs taking in the first round over the last ten years should give a pretty decent look at the odds.
Since 2013, there have been 32 quarterbacks taken within the first 32 picks. Five of those picks are no longer in the NFL, eight are their current team backup QB, well the rest are starters.
The easiest way the figure out the odds of the Bears QB selection being a franchise guy is to look at each of the 32 guys draft and give them a rating of either franchise, good, alright, bad, and bust.
A franchise QB is someone that you and most people believe can either win a Super Bowl or put their team in a spot to compete for one in most seasons. A good quarterback is someone who is either still early in their career or is getting close to that level.
An alright quarterback is someone who shows flashes of being good or even great but doesn't do it enough to move up. You can win with this guy, but not because of this guy most of the time.
A bad QB is someone who you will be looking to move on from at the end of the season or as soon as you can. They might not be a start right now, but if they need to come in for a game or two, it isn't the end of the season. Bust is someone who shouldn't be a starter in this league and is looked at as a bad draft pick at their spot shortly into their career.
Now, it's really hard to say where to put a rookie QB or someone who is in their second year and hasn't played a ton. So they get the category of to be determined. Only three players fit that mold. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, Panthers QB Bryce Young, and Texans QB C.J. Stroud.