While Pickett and Young have both struggled and Stroud has shined, there is nothing to say that any of those players will continue down that current path. So, for the time being, these three players are taken out of the data.
There also happens to be one more player that needs to be taken out of the data, and that is Dwayne Haskins, who tragically passed away a few years ago.
So, out of the 28 players that we can use, how many of them turned out to be busts in the NFL? That number is a shocking 12 with names including EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson, and probably the most famous bust, Johnny Manzel.
Drafting someone who is a bust sits at a scary 42.9% chance. That's not even factoring in the players that are considered bad, either.
Now if you do take a look at the players considered bad on this list there are only four of them and they are, Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, and Jamies Winston. All but one are current backups on their teams. While the one starter (Mayfield) hasn't had a great season.
The players that are bad make up 14.3% of a chance to draft, but if you add their total with the bust total of 42.9%, it adds up to 57.2%. So well over half the time you take a QB in the first round its someone that isn't good enough to be a starter in the NFL long term.