The Chicago Bears made Rome Odunze the third wide receiver off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft, with the idea of he and Caleb Williams becoming one of the top WR-QB duos in the league. That of course did not quite come together in Year 1, amid coaching turnover that fostered inconsistency from Williams right on down to everyone else.
As the Bears' No. 3 wide receiver, Odunze's production suffered (54 receptions for 734 yards and three touchdowns. But some of his deeper metrics (average depth of target, routes run, red zone targets, deep targets) etc.) were very promising, but sabotaged by Williams' struggles with accuracy and general tendency to hold the ball too long.
Odunze finished as the WR49 in full PPR last season, and WR65 in points per game. A shade over 49 percent of his fantasy points came in just four of his 17 games.
According to Player Profiler, Odunze was top-15 among wide receivers last season in air yards, average depth of target (13.8), deep targets (23) and red zone targets (18). He was also top-five (where high/more is bad) in unrealized air yards. Other sources have slightly different numbers in some of these categories, but the overall point stands.
Based on expected fantasy points and accounting for catchable/uncatchable targets, Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points boiled it right down to how much fantasy production Odunze lost to circumstances beyond his control last year.
You pretty much have to throw out Rome Odunze’s entire rookie season.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 3, 2025
He dealt with the worst luck / QB accuracy I can ever remember. And it's multiple standard deviations worse than any season I *can* remember
See for yourself, via @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/9QNQUg44gq
In an odd statistical note, Odunze had 40 receiving yards or less in all five of the Bears' wins last season and at least six targets in nine of their 12 losses.
Frankly, it can't get really get any worse for Odunze than it was during his rookie season and he seems more than ready to correct that this season.
The path to Romeo Odunze delivering fantasy gold in 2025 is (almost) too easy
A negative nelly about Odunze's breakout potential this year would point to the additions of tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden in the draft. But Odunze is unique among the Bears' pass catchers in terms of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) as well as alignment/route versatility, and his rapport with Williams should only come together better this year.
Props from head coach Ben Johnson also can't hurt.
Moe Moton of Bleacher Report recently tabbed 10 fantasy breakout candidates for 2025, with the addition of a 1-10 "meter" to project their chances to break out. Odunze came in with a "7" on that meter, but Moton practically made a case for him to get a "9" or a "10".
"Last year, Odunze caught 54 passes for 734 yards and three touchdowns in one of the league's worst passing offenses (31st in yards). Johnson just needs to moderately improve the Bears' offensive attack for him to flirt with 1,000 receiving yards."
"Though the Washington product will compete with DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift for targets, he should have an edge over the rookies because of his established rapport with Caleb Williams."
"At 6'3", 215 pounds, Odunze is Chicago's biggest primary receiver, which may equate to more targets in the red zone."
Read more: Opponents clearly put a bullseye on one Bears cornerback last season
The expectation of a more efficient Bears' offense will yield more overall red zone opportunities, and Odunze's share of those chances in the passing game should not go away.
More overall target volume with Keenan Allen gone, and virtually automatic better accuracy/efficiency from Williams, outlines the upside for Odunze this year. With a current ADP in the WR3 range, regardless of scoring format, it's too easy for fantasy managers to take minimal risk to put legit WR1 (top-12) upside on a roster.