As Tuesday's NFL trade deadline approaches, there are several moves that Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles could make to improve the team this season.
He addressed nickel corner by signing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but could still stand to add talent on the outside, with Jaylon Johnson expected to miss the majority of the season. Reports that Dayo Odeyingbo will miss the rest of the season due to an Achilles injury make the need at defensive end even more pressing.
Yet, the Bears might be best served if Poles does something for the first time in his career as a general manager: sit out of the trade deadline entirely.
Why no moves is better for the Bears?
At 5-3, it's incredibly tempting for the Bears to make a move. They're just a half-game behind the Packers for first place in the division and firmly "In The Hunt" for a wild card spot.
But do they really feel like a team primed to make a Super Bowl run or add a significant piece for the future? I don't think so.
The Bears' Week 9 win against the Bengals was encouraging for fans hoping that new head coach Ben Johnson and young quarterback Caleb Williams can tangibly change the culture at Halas Hall. It was a game that past Bears teams would've lost 10 out of 10 times.
"Bears get out to a big lead, only to crumble and allow a flurry of scoring in the waning minutes" could describe a dozen losses over the past 15 years. But the Bears didn't blow it. They rallied and won, just like they did against the Raiders and Commanders earlier this year.
Things do feel like they're different this year, but all those gutsy wins could also be used as examples why the Bears are not one, or even two players away from contending for titles.
Right now, the Bears still make way too many mistakes. They entered Week 9 as the league leaders in false starts. Before playing the undisciplined Bengals, they had committed more penalties than their opponent every week.
In some cases, the Bears are able to overcome those mistakes, like when Williams found Colston Loveland on third-and-goal from the five-yard line, moments after a delay of game took them off the doorstep of the end zone. More often, the Bears' mistakes cause a drive to fizzle out or help their opponent score.
The special teams unit is also a complete mess.
Tory Taylor's 48.5-yard average punt distance is 15th in the NFL. His 41.5-yard net average is 20th. Taylor's eight punts inside the 20-yard line are tied for 28th in the league. He and the coverage team finally managed to pin an opponent on the one last week against the Ravens, but one of those costly mistakes erased it. An illegal formation forced Taylor to punt again, and on his second go around, he booted the ball out of bounds at the 22.
The kickoff coverage is even worse. The Bears are giving up an average of 29.5 yards per kickoff this year, the worst mark in the league. The team tried giving Taylor a shot at kickoffs to fix the issue, but it made no difference. The unit bottomed out against the Bengals when they allowed Charlie Jones to return the opening kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown.
The one piece of the third phase that had been operating reliably was the field goal unit. But the group allowed pressure up the middle on a Santos block in Week 9, which was a recurrence of an issue that hurt the team last year. Santos missed another field goal attempt earlier in the game, but a Bengals penalty bailed the Bears out and struck the miss from the record books.
With issues like those, it may be short-sighted to give up draft capital for what may be a rental player.
The Bears don't need to look any further than Kyle Monangai for proof positive that every draft pick can make a difference. Poles picked him in the seventh round this year, and with D'Andre Swift sidelined due to a groin injury, Monangai not only stepped in and succeeded as the starting back against the Bengals, but he also worked as the focal point of the entire offense for most of the day.
The Bears certainly need help at cornerback and defensive end this year, but they'll need help at those positions next year, too. I'm not convinced Theo Benedet is the answer at left tackle, and Braxton Jones is likely headed out of town this offseason, so the Bears will probably need another young tackle to compete with Ozzy Trapilo next year, too. Kevin Byard turns 33 next year, so the team will want to think about adding their eventual replacement at free safety, too.
The best way to address all of those needs and build a sustainable winner for Johnson is through the draft. And the best way to add impact players in the draft is to draft a lot of players. Picking past the top 100-150 players can be a bit of a crap shoot, so taking more swings naturally increases the odds of landing a difference maker.
Of course, the Bears could help build towards the future by adding a player who has already signed a big contract, such as Bradley Chubb or Maxx Crosby. However, the Bears are only projected to have $2.86 in cap space next year, according to OverTheCap. Bringing in a splashy player like that would require major contract reworking or some corresponding moves, such as parting ways with DJ Moore or Cole Kmet.
Not entirely out of the realm of possibility, but it would require seismic levels of wheeling and dealing, and might not interest teams that are in "sell" mode.
Since taking the job as Bears general manager, Poles has made a move near the NFL trade deadline every season. Last year, he sent Khalil Herbert to the Bengals in exchange for a seventh-round pick (ironically, the exact pick they used to select Monangai, who just shredded the Bengals).
Read more: 4 Bears had career-defining games in insane 47-42 win vs. Bengals
In 2023, Poles pulled off the blockbuster deal to acquire Montez Sweat. In his first season as GM, Poles both traded away Roquan Smith and brought in Chase Claypool.