After two dismal weeks, the prospect of Case Keenum starting under center was not a great reason for hope for the fantasy prospects of the three most prominent Chicago Bears pass catchers. Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze still didn't do a lot against the Philadelphia Eagles, but the story was different for Luther Burden.
Burden was involved from the word go, with a catch on Keenum's first pass attempt. Later on the first drive, he got a carry. Then he ended things with a touchdown. When it was all said and done for the night, Burden had a team-high seven catches on a team-high 11 targets for 61 yards along with the touchdown.
Burden's 19.8 full PPR fantasy points (don't forget that rush attempt for seven yards) were good fora WR13 finish on the week. It'd still be nice if Kalif Raymond wasn't taking so many opportunities away from everyone else, but Week 3 was a clear win for Burden over Loveland and Odunze, who both had near-miss touchdowns that would've made their outings look different.
Luther Burden is on the upswing after Week 3 breakthrough
There is still concern about how little Burden is playing when the Bears are in "12" and "13" personnel (two and three tight ends). But he had a robust 32.4 percent overall target share in Week 3, with a similarly robust 28 percent first-read target share.
Those target share numbers feel ripe to regress going forward. But a backup quarterback (Keenum or Tyson Bagent, not that head coach Ben Johnson is at all compelled to say) is set to start again for the Bears in Week 4. A plan that heavily involved Burden in Week 3 can easily transfer similarly to what seems like a likely start for Bagent against the New York Jets.
Burden delivered a double-digit PPR-point outing in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers (five catches for 63 yards). So he hasn't been a Loveland-level fantasy dud thus far, and David Gautieri of Guru Fantasy World has put together some data to suggest better days are still coming.
"The fantasy points are going to start catching up to Luther Burden III."
"He’s 16th in target-share (23.5%) – sandwiched in between CeeDee Lamb (23.8%) & Justin Jefferson (23.3%)."
"10th in first-read target-share (32.8%)."
"4th in redzone targets (6) – behind only ARSB, JSN, & Christian Watson."
"14th in expected PPG (14.2).
"Kalif Raymond is not going to continue his current pace (100+ receptions for 1200+ yards)."
The last part might be the most important. While Raymond's role in the Bears' offense may not go away, to the chagrin of Burden, Loveland, and Odunze fantasy managers, his current season-long pace of 107 receptions and 1,212 yards is absolutely unsustainable.
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Burden was a hot fantasy breakout candidate all offseason. While he hasn't lived up to that hype thus far, he has delivered startable fantasy performances in two of three weeks. A bunch of data says better days are coming, with expected regression from Raymond as the icing on the cake.
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