All indications are that Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent is set to make his first start since the 2023 season in Week 4 against the New York Jets.
Caleb Williams was ruled out for the second straight week with his hamstring injury, and he could miss another week or two. Case Keenum got the start in Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles with Williams hurt and Bagent not getting back in time from concussion protocol. Keenum lit it up for 247 yards and three total touchdowns in the 27-7 win over Philly.
NFL insider Ian Rapoport was the first to report that Bagent is expected to start after getting most of the first-team reps in practice this week. This could spark a heated debate about Bagent, but the real question is what a successful start looks like for him beyond the obvious win.
Examining what a perfect Tyson Bagent start looks like with the Bears
One thing that Keenum did well in Week 3 was to flow within Ben Johnson's offense and rarely force dangerous passes into bad spots. Keenum faced a lot of pressure against the Eagles and threw smart passes to open receivers, completing all 11 passes when Philly blitzed.
Bagent is a different style of quarterback from Keenum, as he is more athletic and can use his legs when he needs to. That could be an advantage, with creative ways the offense can move the ball by rolling Bagent out of the pocket or getting him moving.
The number one thing Bagent needs to replicate from Keenum, besides the winning part, is protecting the football. He needs to make sure he doesn't turn the ball over or throw into tough coverage. If he doesn't see an open guy, just throw the ball over and live to fit another down.
Nerves will be there for Bagent since he hasn't started a game in three years, so he needs to execute on short completions and help get the running attack going. That might require him to run a bit while also making sure he makes the easy throws on screen passes or those five- to eight-yard routes.
Bagent needs to go into this game confident and know he can do the job. Johnson mentioned after the Eagles game that Bagent earned the backup for a reason, so he already earned it in training camp. Nothing should hold him back from doing anything different from what he did in preseason.
Another thing Keenum did well was get the tight ends involved early and often. Bagent should use Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet as his security blankets early in the game, until he gains confidence and momentum to start hitting Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III on deeper outside routes.
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A good stat line for Bagent would be completing at least 64% of his passes for roughly 250 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, plus another 20 to 40 yards on the ground. If Bagent does that, it should be an easy win for the Bears over the Jets.
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