Fantasy Football – Overall Rookie Rankings
6.) Devonta Freeman, Falcons:
Playing time – S-Jax has lost a step or three and Jacquizz Rodgers is too small to be an every down back, which leaves the door wide open for Freeman to earn some carries. He’s short (5’8) but a stocky 206 pounds and I think he has enough bulk to hold up with a lead back workload. Whether he gets it or not depends more on S-Jax who will get plenty of chances to keep the role, but if he doesn’t show more burst than he did last year than I think Freeman can win the job outright. He wasn’t used much in college, so there is plenty of tread left on the tires.
Fantasy outlook – Freeman will have to beat out S-Jax for the job as I mentioned above, but I think he has a shot to do it. I had him ranked as one of the top 6 backs coming out of the draft and he is underrated due to splitting carries at FSU. He can catch out of the backfield, block enough to stay on the field and is fast and shifty enough with the ball in his hands to produce if given the chance. Freeman is a dark horse ROY candidate and could be a fantasy steal in the late rounds with 750+ yards, 40-50 catches, and 6+ TD a definite possibility once he takes S-Jax’s job.
Auction value – Re-draft $8, Keeper $15
2013 Statistical comparison – Gio Bernard
Draft ahead of – Mark Ingram, Shonn Greene
7.) Eric Ebron, Lions:
Playing time – The Lions have been throwing Brandon Pettigrew out there at tight end for the last few years despite the fact that Pettigrew can’t catch and is a suspect blocker. For some reason that I can’t figure out, the Lions re-signed Pettigrew for 4 yrs / $16M [≈ Most expensive car ever sold, Ferrari]. Pettigrew earned a -9.1 run blocking grade from PFF last season and he was -8 overall. He’s just not that good at any aspect of the game. Despite how bad Pettigrew was, the Lions had much bigger holes in their secondary. So they made a mistake signing a less than average tight end to a big deal, then compounded it by using their high 1st rounder (10th) on a tight end instead of a corner. That’s classic Lions, but it’s not a knock on Ebron. The Lions will use him like how the Saints use Jimmy Graham, as an occasional in-line blocker but more often a slot receiver. The Megatron, Tate, Ebron receiver group is dangerous. With Megatron drawing constant double teams, Ebron should see plenty of single coverage from OLBs, slot corners, and safeties, all of which will struggle to cover him 1-1.
Fantasy outlook – Stafford was so inconsistent last year, that it’s hard to gauge any value from his non-Megatron receivers, but the Lions throw the ball more than almost any team so there will be plenty of targets to go around. Ebron is a phenomenal athlete with speed, agility, and huge hands. His concentration wavered at times last year, but he’s going to destroy some OLBs and safeties in coverage and should have some monster games for the Lions. I think he has the ability and the situation to join the elite tight ends this season. 65, 900, 9 is realistic.
Auction value – Re-draft $8, Keeper $15
2013 Statistical comparison – Jason Witten
Draft ahead of – Kyle Rudolph, Charles Clay
8.) Johnny Manziel, Browns:
Playing time – Brian Hoyer deserves a chance to open the season as the Browns starting QB. He won both of his starts last year on a team that only won 2 of the 14 games that Hoyer didn’t start. He’s from Cleveland, grew up a Browns fan, it’s a cool story but also a long shot with the Browns spending a first rounder on Manziel and fans already making Manziel jerseys the #1 seller in the off-season. The pressure on Hoyer will be immense, with fans calling for Manziel after every three-and-out, but I think he will at least get a chance to open the season as a starter. As soon as Hoyer shows any sign of faltering, which he probably will, Manziel will take over. I think it will be in week 5 after their bye.
Fantasy outlook – His fantasy value will be impacted by the status of WR Josh Gordon. If he manages to avoid suspension, the combination of Gordon, TE Jordan Cameron, new RBs Ben Tate & Terrance West, Andrew Hawkins, recently signed Earl Bennett and undrafted FA Chandler Jones will give Manziel plenty of weapons to succeed. Even without Gordon, I think there is more talent at receiver than most people give the Browns credit for. What Manziel is missing is a big, safety-valve target like he had in Mike Evans in college.
I’m going out on a limb here, but I think Manziel will be successful as a QB regardless of whether Gordon plays or not. The kid is a dynamic play-maker (and party animal). For fantasy purposes, he’s going to run a lot and throw deep more than most QBs in the league. He is going to throw more INTs than you want, but I think he has a chance to put up similar stats as RG3 did his rookie season. Around 200 passing yards, 50-75 rushing yards, and 2 total TDs per game which is a solid 20 point fantasy day in most leagues. Manziel is just going to get better as he adjusts to the speed of the NFL and the Browns eventually add more weapons around him. Manziel is a top-tier back-up in 1-QB leagues and a priority add in keeper leagues.
Auction Value – Re-draft $7, Keeper $14
Draft him ahead of – Joe Flacco
9.) Odell Beckham, Giants:
Playing time – The slot receiver position is there for the taking for Beckham. If he can’t beat out Mario Manningham, than the Giants shouldn’t have used a high first round pick on him. I think Beckham will excel in that role. The Giants addressed their leaky O-line in the off-season so Eli should have a better year and by extension so should the Giants receiving core.
Fantasy outlook – Beckham has elite quickness, plenty of straight line speed (4.43) and sticky hands. He will need to get stronger to beat press coverage consistently but I think he is a polished enough route runner to get open at the NFL level. The Giants rebuilt O-line should give Eli more time to throw and I think Beckham will see enough targets to rack up 70-75 catches, 750 yards, and 5-7 touchdowns as a rookie.
Auction value – Re-draft $6, Keeper $11
2013 Statistical comparison – Emmanuel Sanders
Draft him ahead of – Reuben Randle, Stevie Johnson, Markus Wheaton
10.) Allen Robinson, Jaguars:
Playing time – I think both Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson have a good shot to start for the Jags as rookies. Ace Sanders is better suited as a back-up and both Lee and Robinson have starter talent. With Lee most likely in the slot, Robinson has the size and strength to excel outside. The quarterback situation in Jacksonville isn’t great, but Henne is a decent veteran who should be better with some actual talent at receiver. Robinson has better size and more strength that any receiver on the Jags roster and I could see him becoming Henne’s go to guy this year.
Fantasy outlook – At 6’3, 220 with good hands, I see Robinson becoming a go to guy for either Henne or Bortles pretty quickly. Robinson’s ability after the catch stood out when watching tape on him from last year and I had him ranked higher than a few of the receivers drafted ahead of him. I think he’s going to have a better year than most analysts are expecting and Robinson will be on many of my fantasy roster’s this year. I’m predicting better numbers than more heralded Marqise Lee and a dark horse for offensive rookie of the year. I’m going out on a limb here but I think 70, 900, 8 is a real possibility this year.
Auction value – Re-draft $5, Keeper $10
2013 Statistical comparison – Marques Colston
Draft him ahead of – Mike Williams, Jerricho Cotchery, Marqise Lee
11.) Jordan Matthews, Eagles:
Playing time – The release of DeSean Jackson opened up a hole in the Eagles depth chart for either Matthews or fellow rookie Josh Huff to fill. Riley Cooper is locked in at one spot outside, but Jeremy Maclin is on a 1-year deal and coming off a serious knee injury. Matthews has the size and route-running ability to take over Jackson’s outside receiver spot while Huff is better suited to the slot. Huff might have an edge due to his familiarity with the Eagles offense from his days at Oregon, but Matthews is very smart and should be able to pick things up quickly enough to take Maclin’s spot if his injury lingers or even if he is healthy. Regardless of whether he takes Maclin’s job I think he will be on the field for at least 50% of the Eagles offensive snaps and should see a decent number of targets.
Fantasy outlook – I had Matthews graded as a late 1st round pick and think his combination of size, route-running ability, and hands will make him a solid NFL receiver who is capable of making an instant impact. I predict that Matthews will take Maclin’s starting job by mid-season and will be a valuable fantasy contributor this year. I think 60, 800, 7 is realistic which makes him worthy of a spot on your bench and a flex spot in PPR leagues.
Auction value – Re-draft $5, Keeper $10
2013 Statistical comparison – James Jones
Draft him ahead of – Stevie Johnson, Andrew Hawkins, Kelvin Benjamin
12.) Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings:
Playing time – He is already getting snaps with the 1st team offense and he’s only been with the team for a few weeks. That’s a pretty good sign that he’s going to be given a legitimate shot to win the starting job. The Vikings did just re-sign Matt Cassell to a 2-yr deal, so I think Cassell will open the year as the starter but he showed last year that he is mediocre at best. I like the fact that Bridgewater didn’t go home after his initial interviews, but stayed in Minnesota and used the week to get a head start on the playbook. I think Cassell will get the opening day gig, but will be on a short leash. Cassell can succeed when he’s surrounded by offensive talent like he was in New England, but he can’t carry a team. I think Bridgewater will be starting by week 6 in a home match-up vs the Lions porous secondary.
Fantasy outlook – Bridgewater was my #1 QB in the draft and I think he has the best potential to be an above average NFL starting QB. Manziel’s fantasy upside is higher due to his running ability and tendency to air it out, but Bridgewater is smart, goes through his progressions well and throws receivers open better than any rookie QB. With an explosive weapon in Cordarrelle Patterson and AP forcing 8 men in the box, Bridgewater should be able to pick defenses apart. If you prefer consistency over the Manziel roller coaster, than Bridgewater is your guy. I think he has a good shot for 200+ yards and close to 2 TDs per game. He won’t throw as many picks as Manziel but won’t have as many 25+ fantasy games either. If you like to carry two QBs on your roster, Bridgewater makes an ideal back-up since he should be the starter by the time you need a bye week replacement for your #1 QB.
Fantasy value – Re-draft: $5, Keeper: $10
Draft him ahead of – Ryan Fitzpatrick
13.) Terrance West, Browns
Playing time – The Browns signed RB Ben Tate in the off-season to take over as the #1 running back and he should get most of the carries early in the season. Tate has never been a featured back and has had trouble staying healthy even when sharing the job. If he manages to hold up all season, then West probably won’t see more than 8-10 carries per game, but if he goes down then West is the back best suited for taking over as the primary ball carrier. He has the bulk to hold up running between the tackles and has the long speed to break a couple. I’d be surprised if West doesn’t get a few starts this year and if he gets a chance West is talented enough to keep the job.
Fantasy outlook – West will probably see a series or two to spell Tate early in the season and won’t have enough fantasy value to deserve a roster spot. Should Tate go down though, West instantly becomes a solid RB2. If you’re the type of fantasy owner that likes to draft handcuffs, West should be near the top of your list.
Auction value – Re-draft $4, Keeper $8
2013 Statistical comparison – LeGarrette Blount
Draft him ahead of – Mark Ingram, Shonn Greene
14.) Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers:
Playing time – Coming into the draft, the starting receivers on the Panthers depth chart were Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery. So if Benjamin doesn’t start, it will be a big disappointment for Panthers. At this point in their respective careers, those two are better off as 4th or 5th receivers and Benjamin has the physical tools to be a #1 WR. I was surprised with the pick and thought he was the least NFL ready of all the receivers taken in round 1, due to his lack of route-running ability and suspect hands, but clearly the Panthers disagreed. One thing he does have is great size and he will give Cam Newton a big target. Benjamin will get a lot of playing time and should see plenty of targets.
Fantasy outlook – With only average speed and acceleration, I am worried about Benjamin’s ability to get open at the NFL level. Though with his size I guess he is always open, if Newton can put the ball where only Benjamin can get it. With really no other talent at the receiver position I expect Benjamin to get plenty of targets and quite a few deep jump balls which he is uniquely qualified to haul in. I think it will be an up and down year, with Benjamin struggling to get open consistently but with the occasional big play / big fantasy line. I think 45, 700, 7 is a realistic expectation.
Auction value – Re-draft $4, Keeper $8
2013 Statistical comparison – Terrance Williams
Draft him ahead of – Denarious Moore, Brandon LaFell
15.) Jace Amaro, Jets
Playing time – One of the best receiving TEs in the draft (106, 1352, 7) ended up on a team with no starting caliber TEs (Jeff Cumberland?) and QBs that struggle with accuracy on anything but short-to-intermediate routes. Amaro should be able to beat out Cumberland on passing downs at least and should become the go-to guy for whichever garbage QB is running the Jets. Amaro will be on the field a lot as a rookie and may lead the team in catches.
Fantasy outlook – Amaro is a natural receiver with tight end size. The Jets have some more weapons this year, but have no talent at TE which should keep Amaro on the field for around 75% of offensive snaps this season. Amaro lined up as a receiver more often than not in college and will probably play an H-back / Move TE role with the Jets this year. The Jets added Eric Decker in free agency and drafted some project receivers (Saunders, Evans, Enunwa) but Amaro should be the safety-valve for either Vick, Geno, or Boyd. He has excellent size (6’6, 260), knows how to find holes in a zone, and is a load to bring down after the catch. He looked apathetic at the combine, but his tape is very good and I think once the pads are on, Amaro will be in the running for offensive rookie of the year in 2014. 70 catches, 775 yards, and 7 TDs is realistic.
Auction value – Re-draft $3, Keeper $8
2013 Statistical comparison – Charles Clay
Draft ahead of – Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen