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12 midseason numbers prove the Bears are a sure-fire Super Bowl favorite

Just how good have the Bears been?
ByRyan Heckman
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Every Chicago Bears fan has to have found themselves in some weird, alternate universe this season because this team is legitimately in the conversation as a Super Bowl contender.

It isn't something we're used to.

Anyone else having to pinch themselves as they realize we may not have to live in 1985 any longer?

These Bears are different under Ben Johnson, and with Caleb Williams at the helm. As they get some much-needed rest during this bye week, let's look at just how good the Bears have been through nine weeks.

Bears are no. 1 in the NFL in time of possession

How do you best stop the opposing offense?

Keep them on the sidelines, that's how.

The Bears continue to lead the league in time of possession at 34:31.

Let us not forget, this is all while starting three different quarterbacks and being without their most physical running back for the past five games.

When the tougher matchups come, and playoff football arrives, the Bears are set up for success because they know how to sustain drives and dominate the clock.

Caleb Williams is no. 1 in adjusted completion percentage

While completion percentage was an area we saw Caleb Williams get knocked down for, last year, he's been a world of a different quarterback in 2026.

Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams
QB Adjusted Completion Percentage through Week 9 | Ryan Heckman

Pro Football Focus has his adjusted completion percentage at a ridiculous 81.3 percent, which is good for no. 1 in the league.

This takes into consideration drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws attempted while being hit.

Caleb Williams is the no. 1 quarterback on opening drives

To expand on the Bears' time of possession and their uncanny ability to never find themselves trailing in a game since Williams' return from injury, much of that has to do with how strong of a start he's had in each game this year.

So far, Williams is no. 1 in three different categories on opening drives:

Completion percentage: 81.5%
Touchdown passes: 3
QB Rating: 133.3

Of all the difficulties we can assess from Chicago's recent win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the one thing that still stands out is how Williams came out of the gate on absolute fire.

People will talk about the interceptions and inconsistencies, but the offense's first two drives ended up being paramount in the end. Williams came out playing like the best player on the planet, and that was ultimately the difference between winning and losing. Had he come out playing inneficiently like he did for quarters two and three, that game is an easy loss.

Fortunately, Williams has figured out how to start fast after being known as a fourth quarter mercinary a season ago.

Bears are no. 5 in the NFL in net EPA/Play

Chicago, as a whole, is right at the top of the league in expected points added per play at 0.055.

This includes offense (expected points added), defense (expected points allowed) and special teams.

We can talk all day about how tantalizing the offense looks, but this number gives credit to folks like Dennis Allen and Richard Hightower for their units, as well.

The Bears' defense hasn't been perfect, but they've been good when it counts, more often than not.

And, special teams have come up wth some big moments, whether it's Tory Taylor's banana ball or Cairo Santos' walk-off field goals.

The Bears' third-down defense is no. 1 in the NFL by a mile

You can make some valid complaints about the Bears' defense, specifically in the secondary. But, at the end of the day, Dennis Allen's unit has been absolutely lights-out on third down.

Chicago Bears, Dennis Allen
Third down defense through Week 9 -- Top 5 | Ryan Heckman

The Bears' defense is allowing only a 22.83% conversion rate, with the next-closest defense (Seattle) sitting at 30.58%.

This is one of those numbers that should stand out above most every other. Super Bowl teams are able to get their defenses off the field on third downs, and that is exactly what the Bears are doing to this point.

You add in Jeffery Simmons to the equation, for a few more games, and this number is likely to either stay put or get even better.

Chicago's fourth-down defense is no. 4 in the NFL

We talk a lot about third-down defense, but what about fourth down? In today's NFL, you're seeing teams go for it on fourth down a lot more often than even a decade ago, so this category matters.

Not only are the Bears excellent on third down, but they're currently the no. 4 fourth-down defense, allowing a conversion on only 30.77% of the time.

This is awfully impressive considering a lot of these fourth down attempts are coming on fourth-and-short.

Ben Johnson's offense is no. 3 overall

This one is pretty straightforward. In terms of total yardage per game, the Bears are no. 3 overall at 383.0 yards per game.

This puts them just below two other Super Bowl contenders in Buffalo (no. 1 at 386.4) and Kansas City (no. 2 at 384.1).

Caleb Williams' rise is in full force, but for those who might still be in the doubters department, or too focused on his recent and lone bad game this season, these numbers are validating. Ben Johnson's offense is still one of the best there is.

Bears' rushing attack is still no. 3 in the league, even without Kyle Monangai

It has been more of a struggle, in recent weeks, but another thing Ben Johnson has shown he won't do is to abandon the run completely. Even though it isn't nearly as dominant as we're used to seeing, Chicago's run game is still third in the NFL, averaging 142.0 yards per game.

Chicago is doing this with D'Andre Swift taking a full-on beating, carrying the majority of the load, but also having to work in guys like Roschon Johnson and Salvon Ahmed in recent weeks.

The Bears having to go from Johnson to Ahmed proves just how much they miss Kyle Monangai.

Bears are 1 of only 4 teams in the top 10 total offenses and defenses

How else do you know a team is a true Super Bowl contender? This category is pretty telling.

Chicago Bears
Teams in the top 10 of total offense and defense | Ryan Heckman

Of course, the Los Angeles Rams are quite the conundrum of a franchise, right now. If anything, it speaks to just how great of a coaching job Sean McVay is doing over there. The Rams are nowhere near out of it, but they've had a tough road with injuries to Myles Garrett, Davante Adams, and now Puka Nacua, among others.

Bears rushing attack is no. 1 in the league with Kyle Monangai

Have we mentioned how much the Bears miss Kyle Monangai? Of course we have, and plenty lately. The Bears' rushing attack was averaging a whopping 173.3 yards per game with Monangai, before he left with injury.

That was good for no. 1 in the NFL at that point.

Insert another "bye week couldn't have come at a better time" comment here.

With the weather changing and games getting tougher, grittier and more important than ever, it's going to be such a jolt of energy when we see no. 25 back on the field.

Bears quarterbacks are no. 4 in the NFL in completion percentage

What does that say? The Bears are no. 4?

Didn't they roll with Tyson Bagent for a pair of games and Case Keenum for another while Caleb Williams was hurt? Didn't they play the vicious Minnesota and Tampa Bay defenses already?

They sure did, and still, Ben Johnson's quarterbacks are at a combined completion percentage of 67.63% on the season.

Let's also not forget we've also seen a few drops, this year, from both Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland, specifically.

Chicago's offense is no. 2 in red zone scoring attempts per game

For those who may not have known, this is an area the Bears have consistently been mentioned in, since early on this season.

The Bears' offense continues to get into the red zone on a regular basis, averaging 4.2 trips per game.

Now, don't let that distract you from the big plays Chicago has had, which have gone for scores.

But, this coincides with being able to sustain drives and dominate time of possession.

Earlier in the season, one of the bigger pain points was the fact that Chicago could get into the red zone, but especially down inside the five, they struggled to score touchdowns. The Bears are the no. 7 scoring team in the league, which proves they still have some room to grow, here.

But, one of the good measuring sticks for a true contender is their ability to move the football consistently inside the 20. From here on out, it's about converting.

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