Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Tier 9: Breakouts (Part 2)
Cooks and Hunter almost made the first breakouts tier in part 1 and they have the talent to be top 25 fantasy receivers, but a few caution flags dropped them here. I’ll get to my concerns below but this group either didn’t show me enough last year (Wheaton, Hunter, Austin) has QB issues (Hopkins, Randle) or are a rookie (Cooks)
37.) Brandin Cooks, Saints – I’ve been all over Cooks from the beginning, but the hype is getting to the point that it’s almost a bad play. He went in the 5th round of my draft last night and that is just a bit to high for my taste. Rookie receivers rarely make a significant fantasy impact; In the last ten years there have been only 4 rookies with over 1,000 yards receiving (Michael Clayton, Marques Colston, A.J. Green, Keenan Allen). I think Cooks can do it, but I’m not willing to bet the house on it.
38.) Justin Hunter, Titans – A popular sleeper pick after his big game in week 2 of the preseason (4, 111, 2) but there are a couple things to worry about. His QB, Jake Locker, has accuracy issues which will limit the number of catchable deep balls and Hunter is still very raw as a route runner. Hunter has upside and will have a few monster weeks this year, but I don’t know if he can put up starting caliber lines every week. On a positive note, Hunter has caught 30 passes in his NFL career (including preseason) and has scored on 8 of them. He’s not going to continue to score a TD on every 4th catch, but that is an impressive ratio.
39.) Markus Wheaton, Steelers – Had zero impact as a rookie, but the Steelers were content to let Emmanuel Sanders leave so they must have at least a little faith in Wheaton’s abilities. He’s going to start as the #2 WR across from Antonio Brown so he shouldn’t ever see a double-team. Wheaton has dangerous speed and could have some big games, but it’s rare to jump from non-factor to superstar in one season and there will probably be a few worthless fantasy lines this year as well. Great bench stash who you can use in bye weeks, matchup plays or as a trade chip if he blows up this year.
40.) Doug Baldwin, Seahawks – One of my favorite sleepers. My gut feeling is that Baldwin will lead the Seahwaks in catches this year and not Harvin (even if healthy for 16). He’s improved every year, only dropped 3 balls last season, led the team with a 68% catch percentage and was Russell Wilson’s favorite deep threat (29% of his targets were over 20 yards). If Seattle airs it out a little more this year as rumored I think Baldwin could be worthy of the flex spot in your lineups.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
41.) DeAndre Hopkins, Texans – I had high hopes for Hopkins last year. He was one of my favorite WRs coming out of college last year and had a pretty solid rookie season (52, 802, 2) despite Matt Shaub’s meltdown and having to catch passes from Case Keenum and T.J Yates last year. Some think year 3 is when WRs breakout and they may be true statistically, but I think the biggest leap in skill is between years 1-2. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t Joe Montana but he was actually respectable last season (14 TD / 12 INT) and if Hopkins takes the leap that I’m projecting than he could put up a 75, 1100, 8 season and finish in the top 30 WRs. There is no doubt in my mind the talent is there as long as they get a mediocre season of FitzMagic.
42.) Rueben Randle, Giants – The talent is there for Randle to break out this year, but are the brains? Is the QB? Is the O-line? The Giants are trying to install a new offense designed by new OC Ben McAdoo, but Randle had a hard enough time understanding the old one that he had 2 seasons to digest. What are the odds he picks up this new one quick? Zero right? Randle will score some TDs this year becasue he’s the only legitimate red zone weapon the Giants have and a fade is a fade. I’m not expecting a breakout year, but a 700 yard, 7-8 TD season is feasible.
43.) Kenny Stills, Saints – The 6th round rookie out of Oklahoma came out of nowhere to have a really nice rookie season (32, 641, 5, 20.8 ypc) and reports out of New Orleans are that he has improved his strength and route-running ability considerably in the offseason. Stills was a one-trick WR last year, basically using his elite speed (4.38) to run fly routes and that should be a big part of his game this season but if he can add a few catches per games on shorter routes he moves from a fringe fantasy player to a borderline starting asset.
44.) Tavon Austin, Rams – I got burned on Tavon last year in multiple leagues, so it will be tough for me to roll the dice again. I watched his college highlight video one to many times and ended up with him on the majority of my rosters. Whoops. Turns out Tavon didn’t know the playbook at all and really struggled when given a chance to play. He did show the occasional flash of skill that made me so high on him but it was rare. This year he supposedly has a better grasp on the playbook and should be on the field for most snaps. If the Rams can get him the ball 6-7 times a game, he could do some serious damage. I’m still skeptical, but he has as much upside as anyone in this tier.