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Projecting Mike Glennon’s 2017 Fantasy Value

By Bill Zimmerman

Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Mike Glennon (8) throws a pass during the second half of a football game against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. The Falcons won 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Mike Glennon (8) throws a pass during the second half of a football game against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. The Falcons won 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
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Is Mike Glennon worth a spot on your fantasy roster?

You’re in a standard scoring 12-team re-draft league. The draft is about halfway through and you are pretty happy with your roster. You let the suckers take QBs early and you’ve snagged Dak Prescott. You’re pretty happy but you know you need a reliable backup. There are plenty to choose from, but suddenly there’s a run on QBs. Eli, Tyrod, Wentz, Dalton. Crud. All the reliable fantasy backups are gone. You scramble. Blake Bortles? Ugh. Carson Palmer? God no. You aren’t sure who to take, but then you see a name at the bottom of the list. Mike Glennon. You’re intrigued. Should you pull the trigger?

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There is going to be a wide variety of opinions on Mike Glennon this year. Some will call him a sleeper while others will give him a flat “Stay Away” rating. But what should you expect from a Glennon? First of all, if you think you can load up at other positions and snag Glennon late and name him your fantasy starter, you are delusional. No fantasy team should count on a Glennon as a starter, even if you are in a 16-team league.

But is Glennon going to be a capable fantasy backup?  Is he a better option than rookies like Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahoney?

the answer to those questions is yes. Glennon should be taken ahead of every rookie QB. No QB this year will be given the reigns to the team. Watson is the best bet but Tom Savage will be there and might start over him.

The Bears have been very consistent and I don’t expect it to change. They are making sure everyone knows that Mike Glennon is the team’s quarterback this year. While 2018 is murky, 2017 is not. Glennon is starting and will continue to do so.

That’s a great sign and a solid vote of confidence. The Bears don’t want Mitch Trubisky to play this year. It wouldn’t even be a shock if they let Trubisky be the QB3 this year and let Mark Sanchez or Connor Shaw handle the QB2 duties.

The other thing that helps you from the Glennon perspective is that he knows 2018 will almost certainly be the year of Trubisky. That means Glennon knows one of two things- he’s either going to have to play lights out to keep his QB1 job or he knows he’s playing for a new contract in 2018 after the Bears release him, or perhaps trade him. Either way, if he wants to continue to start and earn starting QB money, he has a one-year audition for the league. Motivation will certainly not be lacking.

Finally, Glennon has proven that he can put up decent fantasy numbers if given an opportunity. His 2700 yards and 19 TDs in 2013 prove that. So what can you expect from Glennon if he stays healthy?

If Glennon’s performance is simply nothing flashy and rather pedestrian, he’s going to keep the starting job all season. The Bears’ 2016 motley crew of QBs managed to put up 4200 yards and 19 TDs (with 19 INTs), and Glennon is definitely an upgrade from that. If you don’t think so you aren’t paying attention.

Glennon doesn’t have a ton of weapons to utilize, but he should have a strong ground game to take pressure off him and if Kevin White stays on the field and Cam Meredith continues to develop, the Bears have more passing options then people realize.

Sep 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Kevin White (13) carries the ball as Philadelphia Eagles free safety Jalen Mills (31) tackles during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Kevin White (13) carries the ball as Philadelphia Eagles free safety Jalen Mills (31) tackles during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

Glennon shouldn’t have any problems chewing up some yardage and averaging 250 yards per game in Dowell Loggains’ offense. If Glennon just shows up he should hit 4000 yards passing. The key for Glennon’s production is going to be passing touchdowns. Glennon will turn the ball over some, but it isn’t going to be at an alarming rate. But how many times can he find the end zone?

If Glennon approaches 30 TDs he will be a steal, but that’s probably asking for too much. The Bears offense does struggle in the red zone and if a reliable red zone target doesn’t emerge, that problem will continue. Plus, with Howard leading the ground attack, there’s a good chance the Bears will run the ball on first and second down in the red zone far more than they throw it.

That means Glennon is looking like a QB that is going to be a matchup play against weak defenses and if your starting QB goes down, Glennon will certainly provide you some points but won’t win you a game.

Projecting Mike Glennon’s 2017 stats: 15 games started, 3900 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs

Those stats would work out to 260 yards per game, 1.5 TDS, 0.9 INTs and in a standard scoring league be worth about 9.2 PPG. Glennon should also tally about 10 yards rushing a game, which means if he can sneak one rushing TD, he’s going to average about 11 PPG. If you throw Glennon against the right matchup, he should score between 15 and 20 points which would keep any fantasy owner pleased.

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What is Mike Glennon’s value? He is definitely worthy of a roster spot in 14, 12 and perhaps even 10 team leagues. He will be a decent fantasy backup for your team but don’t think you’ve out-smarted the league and landed the greatest sleeper in the history of fantasy football either.

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